Avocados tipped to triple at 5-6 million trays

By Elaine Fisher
In a dramatic turnaround in fortunes, the avocado industry looks set to harvest about six million trays of fruit next summer, tripling this season's dismal two million trays.
Industry leaders say the fruit set on trees throughout the Bay of Plenty could be the biggest for many years. Poor fruit set last year meant many growers in the Bay had little or no fruit to pick this summer.
Hugh Moore, Avocado Industry Council and Avocado Growers Association chairman said: "Final figures are not in but it appears we exported around one million trays from a total crop of around two million."
"Next season the crop is likely to be between 5 and 6 million with around 3.5 million export trays. However, growers should not expect the up to $18 a tray return they got this season and should budget on between $10 and $12 a tray," he said.
To cope with the massive crop, the council is asking growers and packers for early crop predictions, has plans for a new promotional campaign in Australia and wants to work with exporters and marketers.
Paul Robertson of Bridge Cool Katikati said that while it was difficult to make a crop estimation at this time of year, indications were that the trees were carrying a record crop.
"We could see three million export trays nationally."
Bridge Cool growers cover the area from Cooks Beach in Coromandel to Te Puke and, while trees may shed some of their fruit, growers should enjoy a bumper harvest from December to February - with careful management growers, Mr Robertson believes.
"The challenge now is to grow the crop and that means feeding the trees. If you want your children to grow you give them breakfast, lunch and dinner ... and avocados need feeding too. Growers who care for their trees will see the benefits."
Allan Dawson, managing director of Aongatete Coolstores, said careful orchard management was needed to ensure the crop stayed on the trees and that they were in good condition.
"Growers must make sure trees are not stressed by the crop load," he said.
However, the biggest challenge may be marketing the huge crop.
"It's marvellous to see such a good crop but I'm a little nervous about how we market it, particularly in Australia. We must also be careful not to flood the local market and make an effort to ensure a good volume goes into oil to avoid that."
Phil Reed of Apata Ltd said growers could lose up to 2/3 of their avocados and still have a massive crop next season.
Some growers in Northland had achieved good results from thinning flowers on their trees, but Bay of Plenty growers may be averse to the idea after some had virtually no fruit to harvest this season, he said.
Rosemary Sorenson of Satara said the good fruit set early in the season was being maintained with very little abortion of fruit.
"It's good news for growers who have been hard hit with no fruit this season," she said.
Pat Sale, an independent horticulture consultant and editor of the first Avocado Growers' Manual, said the big crop wasn't unexpected.
"A lot of trees had a complete rest last season because they didn't bear fruit and have built up reserves so that if conditions were right in spring, which they obviously were, they could set a big crop."
Avocado trees had strong biennial tendencies but that could be countered by orchard management and that was what is needed to ensure a crop the following season, he said.