Weather models are beginning to align that a looming cyclone packing damaging winds, big seas and heavy rain is on course to strike upper North Island regions recovering from devastating floods.
Forecaster WeatherWatch said it will be at least another 72 hours before models tracking the cyclone’s course towards New Zealand can be more certain, but the current forecast is “certainly ominous”.
All three modellers expect the storm to reach our shores by early Tuesday morning next week.
“They are aligning more and more, but this does not mean this is locked in. At least another 72 hours before tracking towards NZ can be more certain.”
🌀Here are3⃣of the globe's must trusted weather models. They are aligning more & more, but this does not mean this is locked in. At least another 72 hours before tracking towards NZ can be more certain... but this current forecast is certainly ominous. #DevelopingTropicalCyclone pic.twitter.com/tsLtALMGXh
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 7, 2023
MetService meteorologist John Law said a tropical cyclone will form in the Coral Sea around Thursday. It is then expected to move down towards the east and south of New Caledonia before potentially hitting New Zealand this weekend.
In a tweet, MetService warned that the centre of the system would be near New Zealand’s coasts and that Law expects the cyclone to intensify to a severe category three storm.
Eyes on the tropics, potential impacts for Aotearoa late in the weekend 👀
— MetService (@MetService) February 7, 2023
A tropical low in the Coral Sea is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone in the coming days and current information brings it toward our shores later in the weekend. https://t.co/7wKJumOqMX
1/ pic.twitter.com/SbWEr11INu
“We’re keeping a close eye on the situation and it looks like it may have an impact on us as we head towards the end of the weekend and through towards the start of next week,” said Law.
“[It] has the potential to bring some significant impacts to us in New Zealand, particularly across the northern parts of the country, [it] could bring some heavy rainfall, some stronger winds and some higher seas as well.”
Law said they’d be able to get a better idea of its track once the cyclone has formed.
“So although it’s still a way away and there is still uncertainty, it is a forecast to be keeping a very close eye on.”
🌀The next tropical cyclone poses a threat to New Zealand - but it's still too far away to lock in.
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 6, 2023
Most reliable modelling puts the storm near NZ this Sunday. It's a wait-and-see situation for the next few more days as tracking for our part of the world becomes more reliable. pic.twitter.com/94KMM7BOTX
MetService said warnings and watches will be issued closer to the time of the storm approaching.
This comes as Auckland, Coromandel, Northland and Waikato clean up following an unprecedented weather event.
The downpours that began on January 27 led to Auckland having its wettest day in history, recording 245mm and devastating floods that claimed the lives of three people. Another person died in the Waikato.
Auckland and the Thames-Coromandel District remain under states of emergency.
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown today announced the next phase in the clean-up and recovery for the city, a week on from the deadly storm.
Brown this morning said the council has shifted its focus from emergency response and immediate recovery to the Big Auckland Clean Up being led by Deputy Mayor Desley Simpson.
We're keeping our eyes on the tropics as a tropical low in the Coral Sea looks likely to develop into a tropical cyclone this week
— MetService (@MetService) February 5, 2023
Impacts of the cyclone on NZ will be highly dependent on the path the cyclone could take, which is still uncertain as the system hasn't developed. pic.twitter.com/R4qMnmwzyL
“We are past the worst of the current weather event and the review that I announced into what went wrong in the first 24-48 hours is under way.
“Aucklanders began the Big Auckland Clean Up on the morning of Saturday, 28 January, immediately after the unprecedented downpour on Friday,” Brown said.
“Aucklanders have made me proud, and humbled, to be your mayor. Aucklanders have risen to the challenge, looking after their neighbours, their local communities and lending a helping hand.”
Brown would take the lead on championing the Big Auckland Fix Up, a much longer-term project, about which more details would be made available later in the week, Brown said.
“It would be about getting Auckland ready for more events like the current floods, of which there are expected to be more as a result of climate change, for which Auckland will need to adapt,” he said.
“The Big Auckland Fix Up will oversee the demolition of those properties that need to be; fixing those that can be; and working out what needs to be done with Auckland’s roads, rail, stormwater and other infrastructure to make sure it can cope better with similar events in future.”
Daily briefings for Big Auckland Clean Up are starting from 1pm today. These briefings will provide information about what has been happening, and how Aucklanders and people from outside the region can best help, including where and when.