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Home / World

Rapid slump in support a worry for UK's Lib Dems

By Andrew Grice
Independent·
5 Jan, 2011 04:30 PM3 mins to read

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A little more than six months since the British election, support for the Liberal Democrats has slumped to its lowest level since the party was formed in 1988, according to the Independent's "poll of polls".

Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg is now the most unpopular third party leader since David
Owen led the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 1989.

The Liberal Democrats' 11 per cent rating in the first poll of polls since May's election highlights the dramatic slide in their fortunes since they entered the Coalition with the Conservatives. The 57 Liberal Democrat MPs would be reduced to a rump of just 15 at the next election if this level of support were to be repeated then.

Labour is now on 40 per cent and the Tories on 38 per cent, giving Labour an overall majority of 14, according to the weighted average of the regular surveys by ComRes, ICM, Ipsos MORI and YouGov.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures, said that the costs and benefits of the Coalition had been distributed unevenly between the two parties.

"It is clear that the tone and direction of the Coalition Government has upset many people who voted Liberal Democrat in May ... while for the most part those who voted Conservative have been reasonably content with what has transpired. It certainly should not be presumed that demonstrating an ability to take tough decisions in the national interest will eventually reap a reward in the ballot box."

Only 38 per cent of people are satisfied with Clegg's performance as Deputy Prime Minister, while half are dissatisfied. These are the worst ratings for a third party leader since Owen's score in December 1989, when 24 per cent were happy with him and 52 per cent unhappy.

The Conservatives are now close to being as unpopular as Margaret Thatcher's government at the same stage after she won power in 1979. In contrast, Tony Blair's government retained a positive net rating in December 1997.

Prime Minister David Cameron is doing better personally than Thatcher was at this stage of the political cycle. Forty-eight per cent of people are satisfied with him and 44 per cent dissatisfied. Thatcher's ratings were 41 and 49 per cent respectively, while 61 per cent were happy with Blair and only 27 per cent unhappy.

Labour is doing better than the Tories were after Blair's 1997 landslide but should not be celebrating yet. At the same stage after Thatcher's 1979 election win, Labour was four or five points ahead in the polls but still went on to lose the next three elections.

While 35 per cent of people are satisfied with Labour leader Ed Miliband's performance, 34 per cent are dissatisfied. Only Michael Foot had more people dissatisfied with his leadership at this stage, while only Foot and William Hague had a worse overall rating.

- INDEPENDENT

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