Weather Watch: Is climate change affecting New Zealand?

The scientific experts have been warning about this for years so is it now coming true - is climate change affecting New Zealand? Photo / Dean Purcell

The scientific experts have been warning about this for years so is it now coming true - is climate change affecting New Zealand? Are Northland, Auckland and Waikato the first New Zealand regions to start seeing the extreme weather patterns caused by man-made global warming or is it all just hot air?

Over the past decade Northland has seen some incredible extremes. The main being a switch from devastating floods to devastating droughts within months of each other. For the past 5 years it appears that Northland seems to have two settings - wet or dry. Actually, make that
extremely wet or extremely dry.

Record breaking rainfall in winter, recording breaking dry patches in summer. Not to mention extreme frosts last year that turned inland parts of Northland into South Island winter postcards.

But it's not just Northland. Auckland is also seeing extremes too... from the hottest recorded Auckland temperature last February, to the hottest August on record to one of the coldest Octobers on record - all in 2009. Now Aucklanders have had their driest quarter on record and little rain is in the short range forecast.

Waikato, normally lush and green, looks more like Central Otago this year... it was a similar story last year.

Is this what Dr James Renwick at NIWA is talking about? The extremes of climate change? Remember climate change doesn't always equate to hotter conditions. Many climate change experts say it's about global extremes rather than global warming.

Or is this simply a localised event that is bringing havoc to isolated communities. The answer can't be definitively given - as this period of time, on a global scale, is far too small.

But it is food for thought. At the very least it gives us something to debate and discuss.

My gut instinct, worth as much as yours, is that this is a localised event. That the past few years have seen different weather patterns moving through bringing "out of character" weather to many New Zealand regions.

It's not just the north that is affected by the extreme weather lately. We can't forget the huge nationwide droughts last year, the big floods the winter before that, or the incredibly dry conditions in Central Otago this year. Or how about the months and months of gales and strong winds that hit Southland last year and through some of this year. Or Canterbury experiencing a mostly miserable summer with clouds and temperatures barely reaching the mid teens.

Our weather will always have extremes...that's what makes weather watching so interesting. But in time we may start to see a pattern... are these extremes of late merely an isolated event...or is it the start of the climate change crisis?