KEY POINTS:
It could be time for Jacob Oram to become a specialist batsman - if statistics are any guide.
Oram is again injured and missing from the New Zealand line-up as they ready to play the Australians in the Chappell-Hadlee one-day series. His absence has stimulated further discussion about
the effect on the team if Oram, undeniably a key part of the Black Caps, is lost to injury.
The same type of discussion used to afflict often-injured fast bowler Shane Bond, to the extent that many felt it might be better to omit Bond because of the resulting confidence loss when he was suddenly denied to the team. Oram, like Bond, has lately had to endure jibes of the "harden up" variety after his various injuries and unavailability.
The only correct answer, of course, is that if you have a world-class player available, you play him. If you need to broaden and deepen resources to cover for the loss of that player, that's what you do.
However, recent players like Craig McMillan have spoken of the disruption when a player like Oram is suddenly out of calculations. Even Oram has said he is "one major injury" away from giving up bowling.
Over the last two years Oram has not been lost to the Black Caps quite as often as many perceive. However, that same two years reveals the Black Caps perform worse without him.
In the two years leading up to next month's Chappell-Hadlee series, New Zealand played 52 one-day internationals and 16 tests. Oram played in 36 one-dayers and nine tests. So he played in 69 per cent of the one-dayers and 56 per cent of the tests. Form wasn't a factor - if Oram was fit, he played and losing him as a bowler has an obvious effect on the balance of the side, particularly in one-dayers.
In the 36 one-day matches Oram played, the Black Caps won 22, two were 'no results' thanks to bad weather, 11 were lost and there was one tie - that epic encounter against England last year. So, with Oram on the field, the Black Caps were running roughly at a 2-1 win-loss record or 66 per cent.
But the key statistic is what happened when Oram was injured. In the 16 one-day matches he missed, New Zealand won 5, there were 3 no results and lost 8, a 31 per cent win-loss record.
The picture is worse in tests although, the Black Caps have a poorer record there anyway. Of the nine tests Oram played, New Zealand won four, drew one and lost four.
In the seven he did not play, New Zealand won none, drew three and lost four.
As ever with statistics, almost anything can be proved and disproved and the following points must be made:
No individual makes a team and there will always be other contributing factors to a cricket result.
The 16 one-day matches he missed were against England (4), Australia (6), Sri Lanka (3), West Indies (2) and South Africa (1). The seven tests missed were against England (1), Bangladesh (1; it was drawn), Australia (2), West Indies (2) and South Africa (1).
The win record when Oram was playing also includes a higher than normal "minnow" count because of the cricket World Cup in 2007 - and includes one-day wins against Bangladesh (6;
although interestingly Oram played in the seventh, which New Zealand lost), Ireland (2), Scotland (1), Kenya (1), and Canada (1). So 11 of the 22 ODIs with Oram on board came against minor opposition.
New Zealand's win record also includes that unique 3-0 scoreline over Australia in early 2007 when New Zealand, with Oram available for only one of the Chappell-Hadlee one-dayers, skittled a below-strength line-up.
The eight one-dayers lost when Oram was not playing were to Australia (4), Sri Lanka, South Africa and England (2). The four tests lost were to England, Australia (2) and South Africa - so an argument could be mounted that New Zealand might well have lost these matches anyway.
Two years is a reasonable survey and, even though it must be accepted that not all Oram's injuries are down to bowling, there are some interesting supporting facts.
While Oram has generally done well as a bowler of bounce, accuracy and some parsimony in one-dayers, his record is best against the minnows (best bowling in the last two years was 8.3 overs, one maiden, 36 runs, three wickets; against Bangladesh in late 2007). He has been more expensive and has taken fewer wickets against more senior sides.
His best bowling in tests in the past two years was 20-9-44-3 against England - the only time in two years in which he recorded a five-wicket haul (with three for 46 in the other innings).
His batting has been more fruitful - with one-day scores of 55 (vs Bangladesh), 88
(England), 52 (England), 57 (Bangladesh), 75 not out (Bangladesh), 101 not out (Australia), 63 not out (England), 54 not out (England) and 86
(England) among his returns. In tests, his best batting was 117 (vs Bangladesh), 101 (England) and 50 not out (England).
So the statistically-led conclusion is that New Zealand's interests might be better served if Oram gave away the bowling and played more matches as a batsman. Especially against England.
