Problem Gambling Foundation psychologist Dr Phil Townshend said rather than apply the research to monitor those deemed most at risk, it underlined the importance of providing good environments in which children grew up. Those same people with personality disorders who became problem gamblers were likely to carry the cycle through to their children by giving them "difficult upbringings".
"It's about improving the quality of childcare - that's the thing to take home from this," Dr Townshend said.
Associate Professor Peter Adams, of the Auckland University Centre for Gambling Studies, said there was a risk the gambling industry would use the research to claim availability of gambling was "less of an issue than what happens under the bonnet of the person".
"I would argue that with any risk factors, the environment is a key factor as to whether it becomes problematic."
The study drew on 90-minute assessments of 1037 3-year-olds who were categorised as having one of five temperaments: under-controlled, inhibited, confident, reserved and well adjusted. Those categorised as having an under-controlled temperament were more restless, impulsive, and negative, and were less able to regulate their emotions.
At ages 21 and 36, some 939 of those same study participants answered questions about gambling behaviour. At 21, 86 per cent of the respondents had gambled, but only 13 per cent in a "disordered" way. By 32, only about 4 per cent still gambled at that level.
Among the compulsive gamblers, men were more numerous than women, as were those with low childhood intelligence and socio-economic status. But under-controlled temperament as a toddler remained a significant predictor of disordered gambling, even after allowing for gender, intelligence, and socio-economic status.