Unless there is an absolute clear preference (50 per cent plus) for just one flag, which is highly unlikely, using the FPP system may actually mean that the least favoured flag could win.
How can that happen?
When votes are tallied in the first referendum, they may well be evenly split across all four flags. Let us say 26 per cent, 25 per cent, 25 per cent and 24 per cent. This means the flag that goes up against the existing flag in the second referendum will have won with just 26 per cent of the vote - in other words, it could be the least preferred flag of all with 74 per cent of voters actually disliking it the most.
However, one can learn from the following experience: In December 2008, Wanganui voters were asked to prioritise four projects in a referendum - an events centre/velodrome; Kowhai Park development; the widening of Mosston Rd; and a new library or upgrade to the old one.
When votes were tallied, 38 per cent chose the events centre/velodrome project as their first choice, with the Mosston Rd upgrade receiving 27 per cent. However, taking first, second and third choices into calculations, under the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system that was used, the library development won with 67 per cent of the vote. This gave the most popular project overall the go-ahead, rather than a project that would have had 62 per cent against it.
Why then has the FPP voting system been recommended for the first flag referendum? Simply because government advisers think voters will be too confused if a preferential voting system, like STV, is used.
There is some truth in the comment that STV can be confusing. However, this is usually when voters are faced with two voting systems at the same time, as when voting for a city councillor at local body elections using FPP, but also having to vote for a district health board representative using the STV system.
If STV were used in the first flag referendum, with an appropriate campaign to describe the process, voters would have no trouble understanding what to do. They would all know they needed to place 1, 2, 3 and 4 next to the list of flags in order of their preference.
STV is not new to New Zealand - seven local authorities used it in last year's local body elections to choose their councillors and all elections for district health boards use STV.
Unfortunately, those in positions of authority in New Zealand politics are of an age where they are still stuck in the last century first-past-the-post mentality. They also have little faith in the intelligence of their fellow New Zealanders.
I suggest Mr English and his advisers give their fellow citizens the credit they deserve and spare us from decades of dispute.
-Steve Baron is a political commentator, co-editor of the book People Power and the Founder of Better Democracy NZ
