Gwynne Dyer: Time to put paid to nuclear race

"OF COURSE, the whole point of a doomsday machine is lost if you keep it a secret," said Dr Strangelove to the Soviet ambassador in Stanley Kubrick's classic film of the same name.

In Kubrick's film, a rogue American air force commander orders a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union - but he doesn't know that the Russians have built a doomsday machine that will automatically explode and spread lethal radioactive contamination all over the world if American nuclear weapons land on the USSR. So, everybody dies.

Moscow doesn't want the United States to make the same mistake in real life, so it has just let us know it is building a mini-doomsday machine. It wouldn't destroy the whole world, just a half a continent or thereabouts - like, say, all of the United States east of the Mississippi River, or all of China within 1500 kilometres of the coast.

It is awkward to say this sort of thing through diplomatic channels - "I have the honour to inform Your Excellency that we can now destroy half of your country with only one explosion" - so the preferred method is to get the word out by an accidental "leak".

In this case, the leak occurred on November 10 in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, where President Vladimir Putin was meeting with his senior military officers.

A cameraman for state-owned Channel One television "accidentally" filmed a general studying a poster of a new weapon called Status-6, a giant torpedo (a "robotic mini-submarine", the poster called it) that can travel up to 10,000km at high speed carrying a huge payload - like, for example, a truly gigantic thermonuclear weapon.

And the film clip was broadcast all over Russia before the "mistake" was discovered.

"It's true some secret data got into the shot, therefore it was subsequently deleted," said President Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov. But the complete text and a cutaway diagram of the Status-6 are now available on a hundred websites, and the Kremlin doesn't seem particularly upset.

Indeed, the Government newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta later reported details of the weapon, without showing the diagram, and speculated that it would carry a gigantic cobalt bomb - just like the doomsday machine in Dr Strangelove, although a little smaller.

The explosive core of the warhead would be a massive thermonuclear bomb - perhaps as big as 100 megatonnes, so almost twice as big as any bomb ever tested.

Around this core would be wrapped a thick layer of cobalt-59 which, on detonation, would be transmuted into highly radioactive cobalt-60 with a half-life longer than five years.

"Everything living will be killed," the paper said.

Konstantin Sivkov of the Russian Geopolitical Academy helpfully explained to the BBC Russian Service that a warhead of up to 100 megatons would produce a tsunami up to 500 metres high which, together with the intense radiation, would wipe out all living things up to 1500 kilometres deep inside US territory.

This is crazy talk, but the Russians have always lived in fear that the United States might somehow develop the ability to destroy Russia without suffering serious retaliation.

And the truth is the American military have never stopped looking for some way to do exactly that.

The latest US gambit is anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defences to be based in Eastern Europe, allegedly to defend against nuclear missiles coming from Iran.

But Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons, and it may never get them - yet the American ABM system is going to be deployed in Poland and Romania in the near future.

Moscow is convinced that the project is really intended to shoot down its own missiles shortly after launch.

There is no realistic possibility that the American ABM defences could really destroy all, or even most, of Russia's missiles, but that is exactly what Putin is saying to his generals on the soundtrack just before the TV clip focuses on Status-6.

Status-6 is not scheduled to be operational until 2019-20, and it may never be built at all.

But the old game of nuclear one-upmanship goes on, even though the two countries are no longer really enemies.

It is pointless and potentially very dangerous, and President Barack Obama might usefully spend the last of his political capital putting an end to it.

-Gwynne Dyer is an independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries.