Whanganui Chronicle
  • Whanganui Chronicle home
  • Latest news
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Sport
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Residential property listings
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology

Locations

  • Taranaki
  • National Park
  • Whakapapa
  • Ohakune
  • Raetihi
  • Taihape
  • Marton
  • Feilding
  • Palmerston North

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

Weather

  • New Plymouth
  • Whanganui
  • Palmertson North
  • Levin

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Whanganui Chronicle

Gwynne Dyer: Donald Trump's trade delusion

By Gwynne Dyer
Columnist·Whanganui Chronicle·
13 Jun, 2018 02:00 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Industrial automation, not free trade, is putting people out of work worldwide. Photo / AP

Industrial automation, not free trade, is putting people out of work worldwide. Photo / AP

Halfway across the Pacific Ocean, Donald Trump heard the closing statements from the G7 summit in Quebec (which he had left early to meet North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in Singapore).

All the G7 countries had signed up to an anodyne closing communique that papered over the huge gap between the United States and the other six on world trade.

But Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau then said, once again, that he would answer Trump's big new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with new Canadian tariffs hitting US exports just as hard.

Read more: Gwynne Dyer: Trump's trade war misses the point
Gwynne Dyer:Malaysia a second chance
Gwynne Dyer: Dancing with the scoundrels
Gwynne Dyer: US exit from nuclear deal leaves few options

He had said it before, including to Trump's face just the previous day. The other national leaders present in Quebec said exactly the same thing, and none of them had changed their positions before the final communique was agreed. But still Trump flew into a rage.
No jumped-up leader of a rinky-dink country like Canada was going to get away with talking to the president of the United States like that.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Trump retracted his endorsement of the joint communique, called Trudeau "very dishonest and weak", and hinted heavily that his next target would be Canada's car-making industry (which is almost completely integrated with its US counterpart).

No surprises here. The other countries of what used to be called "the West" have grown used to Trump's tweeted outbursts, and French President Emmanuel Macron restricted himself to saying that "international co-operation cannot be dictated by fits of anger and throwaway remarks".

True enough, but what also needs to be said loudly and often (but generally isn't) is that the whole confrontation over trade is irrelevant to Trump's real political concern, which is vanishing American jobs. He's not just barking up the wrong tree on this issue; he is baying at the Moon.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Trump's line is that the very high unemployment rate in the United States (which he is almost alone among American politicians in acknowledging) has been caused by free trade. The evil foreigners took advantage of gullible Americans to make free trade deals, and then lured ruthless American manufacturers to relocate their factories in their low-wage homelands.

This only made sense for American manufacturers if there was more or less free trade between their new base and the United States, so that they could still sell their products back home without tariffs.

For Trump, therefore, free trade is the mother of all evils. But while more than a million American jobs did get sent abroad like that in the 1990s, very few have been exported in the past 15 years.

In the first decade of the 21st century, the United States lost one-third of all its manufacturing jobs, and the vast majority of them were killed by automation. They didn't "go"' anywhere; they just vanished.

Job destruction then slowed down until other new computer-driven technologies matured: self-driving vehicles, online shopping, "dark" factories and warehouses.
But they are ready now, and the carnage in retail jobs, driving jobs and warehouse jobs is just getting under way. To worry about free trade while this is going on is pure folly.

Discover more

Gwynne Dyer: Revisiting the classless society

15 May 12:00 AM

Gwynne Dyer: Political theatre of the absurd

21 May 06:00 AM

Gwynne Dyer: Italian coalition's agenda threat to EU stability

31 May 04:16 AM
Politics

Gwynne Dyer: Dancing with the scoundrels

31 May 05:00 PM

Trump can do a lot of damage to employment both elsewhere and in the United States by launching a trade war, but he cannot bring the jobs back. They are gone for good, and a lot more will follow.

Automation may be slowed down here and there for a while, but eventually it will eliminate at least half the existing jobs – and the notion that it will create equivalent numbers of new good jobs is an amiable myth.

So while the leaders of other rich countries will have to divert some attention and effort to coping with the negative impacts of Trump's trade war, they must not let that become their obsession too. It's a side issue, though potentially a very expensive one.

In Canada, in France, in Japan, in all the developed countries, the real problem is the same as it is in the US — the inexorable advance of automation and the resulting haemorrhage of jobs.

So devote most of your attention to that, and only respond to Trump's declaration of trade war to the extent that is politically unavoidable.

In the end, you'll be glad you did.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Gwynne Dyer's new book is "Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work)".

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui Chronicle

Council officers back deconstructing St George's buildings

Whanganui Chronicle

How Whanganui achieved lowest property rates rise in NZ

Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui-based AI service features on world stage


Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Whanganui Chronicle

Council officers back deconstructing St George's buildings
Whanganui Chronicle

Council officers back deconstructing St George's buildings

'We’ve got a site earning minimal income for ratepayers, so we need to do something.'

14 Jul 04:59 AM
How Whanganui achieved lowest property rates rise in NZ
Whanganui Chronicle

How Whanganui achieved lowest property rates rise in NZ

14 Jul 04:21 AM
Whanganui-based AI service features on world stage
Whanganui Chronicle

Whanganui-based AI service features on world stage

14 Jul 01:25 AM


Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
Sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

06 Jul 09:47 PM
NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Whanganui Chronicle e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Whanganui Chronicle
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • NZME Events
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP