National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) forecaster Chris Brandolino said rain-bearing low-pressure systemscould be frequently passing across Aotearoa during the coming winter months.
“That usually brings with it higher chances of rain and warmer temperatures.”
The forecaster also predicted a wetter than normal months ahead.
“Maybe you’re not running the heater as often, maybe you’re not wearing the puffer jacket as much. If you’re a snow enthusiast, it may be a bit of a bummer season,” he said.
NIWA Weather says it will be a warmer than average winter for New Zealand. Photo / NIWA
Niwa forecasts the long-term average temperature from June to August to be a balmy 12.5C in Kaitāia.
For the rest of the country, Auckland is forecast to see a long-term average of 11.6C, 9.5C in Hamilton and 8.5C in Masterton.
For the South Island, the average temperature in Nelson would be 8.3C, 7.4C in Christchurch and 7.3C in Dunedin.
Brandolino said the top half of North Island could see wetter than normal conditions.
“The best chances for that are Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Northland.”
Niwa weather predicts higher than average rainfall for the majority of New Zealand this winter. Photo / NIWA
The two wettest places in the North Island would be Kaitāia at 395mm and New Plymouth at 415mm.
The highest average rainfall in the South Island is along the West Coast with 735mm predicted.
However, the forecaster said there was more uncertainty of the rain levels for the rest of the country.
He predicts the bottom half of the North Island, and the top and western and southern parts of the South Island could see above or normal levels of rain for this time of year.
According to the Niwa forecasts, the warmer conditions will disappoint those heading away for the ski season.
“If it’s warmer than average, it may be a bit tough to get low elevation snow events.
“The odds for a banner snow year are not looking great, particularly for any fields on the North Island.”
According to Niwa’s forecasts, a low emerging from the Tasman Sea will begin to emerge and head towards New Zealand tomorrow.
Brandolino said it would bring with it warm temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday.
“We are going to see temperatures warm once again, especially overnights and early mornings.”
He said the odds for rain would increase around the same time as the low arrives across New Zealand.
Auckland will see a high of 18C today and Tuesday, 20C on Wednesday, 19C on Thursday, before diving down to 15C on Friday.
Hamilton will today see a high of 17C, the same on Tuesday, before it rises to 18C on Wednesday, 19C on Thursday, before a dramatic dip to 13C on Friday.
Highs will remain more consistent in Wellington, sitting at 16C today and tomorrow, 17C for Wednesday and Thursday and 12C on Friday.
Residents in Christchurch will start to see negative temperatures at the end of the week with -2C lows expected overnight on Thursday and Friday. The highs will hit 15C today and tomorrow, dropping to 13C and 10C on Wednesday and Thursday.
By the weekend, the low will have moved off and a cold snap will hit the country.
‘We’re going to have cold snaps, we’re going to have frosts, but they are probably going to be less frequent than what is typical of winter," Brandolino said.
He said there were going to be fewer southerlies during the winter.
“There will be some southerlies, but just a lack of them. Consequently, we are going to see less in the way of cold snaps.”
Brandolino suggested next weekend would be a good weekend for skiers and snowboarders to head for the slopes.
