Opinion: Early election drums are beating in Australia, accompanied by the potent issue of cutting immigration – a sure vote lure during these times of chronic housing shortages and rising layoffs.
Anthony Albanese has previously said his Labor government will go full term to May next year but the odds of an earlier election are firming, driven by the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
The markets say there is an 82% chance of a rate cut in August and 100% by September, offering relief for many cash-strapped and mortgaged families.
History is also against Albanese. Australians have elected eight new governments since World War II. Of the seven that preceded the Albanese government, none went the full three years before going to an election.
Peter Dutton, the ex-Queensland policeman who made his name in politics as the tough-as-nails home affairs minister under former conservative prime minister Scott Morrison, is now the alternative prime minister.
He made clear in late May that savage immigration cuts will be at the forefront of his election campaign – capitalising on the wide public unease over the surging number of incomers.
For the 12 months to September 2023, net migration was nearly 550,000, an unprecedented level for Australia. (Net migration is the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country long term.)
Voters in pressure points such as western Sydney and southeast Queensland feel that number on their roads, in their schools and especially in the compressed rental housing market.
In late May, Dutton said that if elected prime minister, he would cut net migration from a recent average of around 260,000 to 160,000.
That’s a big number – big enough for New Zealand to be worried.
Recall that it was Dutton who enforced the deportation of the “501s” – those New Zealand-born criminals forced back to a homeland many had little or no connection with. He memorably referred to their departure as “taking out the trash”.
An unanswered question is whether Dutton as prime minister would leave intact Albanese’s historic change of policy last year, which gave many of the 600,000 New Zealanders living in Australia a simplified pathway to citizenship – after two decades of restricted access to welfare benefits and social services.
The huge leap in the number of New Zealanders departing permanently – announced by Stats NZ last month –suggests this policy change is encouraging more Kiwis to leave, knowing they will be eligible for Australian citizenship after four years there. A net 52,000 left Aotearoa in the year ended March, 39% of them aged 18-30. Most went to Australia.
This number easily eclipsed the previous record net migration loss of New Zealand citizens – 44,400, set near the top of the Australian mining boom, in the year ended February 2012.
Australia’s conservative prime ministers have been far more inclined than their Labor counterparts to restrict New Zealanders’ access to Australia. Malcolm Fraser’s government in 1981 insisted that New Zealanders travelling to Australia begin carrying passports. Two decades later, John Howard restricted their access to Australia’s welfare benefits – a policy that reflected his concern over the rising numbers of New Zealand arrivals.
Scott Morrison remained steadfastly unmoved by New Zealand’s appeals for better treatment of its citizens in Australia and by Jacinda Ardern’s pleadings over the 501 returnees.
If the number of people leaving New Zealand for Australia continues to rise, Dutton will surely have them in his sights.
