What impact will your vote have?

Paul East says New Zealand First is likely to be the deciding factor.

Former National Party Cabinet Minister and Rotorua MP Paul East, QC, and former Labour Party Minister and Act Party leader Richard Prebble give us their opinions on tomorrow’s election.

Paul East
The more the things change, the more they stay the same. Despite the turmoil and upset over the last few weeks, little has changed regarding the likely outcome of our election.

It is clear that National will win far more votes than Labour, although it will fall short of a complete majority.

Again it will be the smaller parties that will determine the Government of the next three years.

I hazard a guess that National will win 44 to 45 per cent of the popular vote. This will mean a need for a coalition government, or at least an agreement for confidence and supply, from one or more of the smaller parties.

At best Act will win one or two seats and United Future may just hang on to Ohariu. The Maori Party has worked well with the National Government and delivered more for Maoridom in the last three years than in the preceding decade. Let's hope they are rewarded with some seats in Parliament.

New Zealand First is likely to be the deciding factor. It is little surprise they are polling well over 5 per cent as more and more New Zealanders enjoy the benefits of a Gold Card.

National has little to fear as Winston Peters is a consummate politician who did an excellent job as Minister of Foreign Affairs in the last Labour-led administration.

There is still a prospect the Conservatives will reach the 5 per cent threshold. If I was John Key I would far prefer to deal with New Zealand First on a day-to-day basis rather than a Conservative Party which has all the hallmarks of being driven by dogma, and is rigidly inflexible.

The election campaign has seen some of the grubbiest tactics I have ever witnessed and our news media have a great deal to answer for. There is a realisation they are gullible in the extreme and the tide is slowly turning. A book based on stolen emails was given more attention than it deserved and Dotcom's "Moment of Truth" turned out to be an absolute fizzer.

Richard Prebble
Let us start with the easy. Todd McClay is going to win Rotorua.

Rotorua does not change MPs easily.

In the Waiariki seat Te Ururoa Flavell will also be returned.

Maori electorates are also reluctant to retire a good MP.

Annette Sykes, who just three weeks ago seemed certain to be elected for the Internet Mana Party, seems to be heading for a double disappointment.

Her election depended on two things - Hone Harawera holding his seat and the Internet Mana Party getting enough party votes.

Neither is going to happen. The electorate has had a gutsful of Mr Dotcom.

Now the harder to predict, who will be in government?

It is hard because public opinion polls rely on land line phones. Many of us only have a cell phone that cannot be polled. The polls today are not accurate.

On one level it's a repeat of last election. National getting around 46 per cent, which is a few seats short.

Labour is heading for an awful result, but may pick up some electorates like Christchurch Central and some of the Maori seats. The Greens will do well. New Zealand First will also get over 5 per cent. I think the Conservatives may fall short.

Peter Dunne will win Ohariu and Act's David Seymour will win Epsom. Act's Jamie Whyte is close to winning a list seat in which case John Key is Prime Minister.

A Labour/Green/NZ First coalition is not impossible. Your vote may not change the result in Rotorua but it could decide who is Prime Minister.