Wetter and warmer summer predicted for Rotorua

Crowds beat the heat at Tikitapu (Blue Lake) near Rotorua. Photo / Ben Fraser

Weather predictions for the rest of summer in Rotorua are out - so do you want the good news or the bad news?

Weather experts say it’s likely to be warmer, but the catch is it’s also going to be wetter - much like the soggy and hotter year we have just experienced.

But a meteorologist says that doesn’t mean it will rain for the next two months straight as there will be periods of settled weather.

While Rotorua’s tourism industry is hanging out for a fine summer to peel back lost earnings in recent years, farmers are sitting back overlooking their greener pastures feeling quietly chuffed they’re not staring down the barrel of another drought.

MetService figures show Rotorua has just experienced the second wettest year since records began at the current weather station in 1971.

Rotorua Treewalk director Bruce Thomasen said the weather couldn’t get much wetter than the past eight months but despite the constant rain - especially in the lead-up to Christmas - people were still wanting to go out.

Thomasen said they had been busy and were almost back at their pre-Covid-19 numbers.

“It feels like it’s been raining since May but people were almost starting to realise that if you didn’t get out and do stuff, you would be doing nothing for months on end. I was surprised with the number of people doing activities in showers and rain.”

Rotorua Treewalk director Bruce Thomasen. Photo / Andrew Warner.

Thankfully for his business, the tree walks were under a large canopy that shielded much of the rain.

“We are lucky the forest is quite protective and we are above the flood line.”

He said much of the visitor industry made about a third of its profits during the summer school holidays so it was imperative the next six weeks were fine.

“It’s a critical period so it’s good if we are due some settled weather.”

Thomasen said he had noticed long-range forecasts weren’t particularly accurate so his advice was to leave cancelling outdoor activities to a day or two beforehand otherwise there could be constant disappointment.

“You don’t want to be putting off camping only to find it’s fine the following week.”

Federated Farmers Rotorua/Taupo provincial president Colin Guyton. Photo / NZME

Federated Farmers Rotorua and Taupō provincial president Colin Guyton said there had been droughts for the past three summers so he wasn’t too worried this summer would be wetter.

He said while some farmers had suffered with the recent bouts of heavy rain, most farmers were pretty happy.

For his farm, the recent heavy rain had done wonders for his turnip crops which he will strip graze. His sileage was also looking “heavy”, which was a good thing, he said.

“It’s now just about getting the weather conditions right to harvest it because this is the first bit of decent weather we’ve had in a while ... My neighbour was carting (hay) on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day because he’s got the gear and that was a good time to do it.”

Guyton said it would be nice for farmers to go into summer with plenty of feed and not have to buy in supplies like maize, carrots, and rejected fruit to get by in dryer months.

“It’s looking good and we’re quite happy with where we are at, at the moment.”

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris said low-pressure systems from the north are more prevalent than normal under the La Nina weather system, which could bring extended periods of heavy rain into the Bay of Plenty.

“The signal we’re seeing for the remainder of summer is a warm but wet one ... So people will need to remain up-to-date with the latest forecasts, even while on holiday.”

But, Ferris said it wasn’t all bad news. A high pressure was forecast to linger around the South Island and will drift northwards from time to time so there would be periods of settled weather.

“Even with high pressure around you’ll need to keep an eye on the potential for afternoon showers. These are more likely to be an issue for Rotorua and other inland areas than coastal places like Tauranga.”

With northeasterly winds being more likely this does increase the afternoon temperatures but has a more profound impact on rising the morning temperatures and also the humidity.

Niwa’s regional predictions for now until the end of February show temperatures are likely (70 per cent chance) to be above average. There will be sub-tropical winds and marine heatwave conditions that will result in high heat and humidity at times.

Niwa also predicted this summer would be similar to last summer.