Springtime lambs in the Rotorua Tree Trust. Photo / Andrew Warner
A "dress rehearsal for the future" is how one meteorologist is describing this year's weather after the Bay of Plenty had its warmest winter on record with a tropical spring forecast.
Tauranga and Rotorua saw warmer temperatures and more rainfall this winter with spring looking dry and warm with some tropical downpours.
Now sector leaders are looking at adapting their businesses to adjust to the new norm.
Metservice meteorologist Lewis Ferris said both Tauranga and Rotorua had their warmest winters on record in mean temperatures.
Tauranga's average winter temperature was 11.9C and Rotorua's was 9.5C, both 1.2C above average, Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said.
He said there were a number of reasons for this including north-east winds bringing warm temperatures from the subtropics, higher ocean temperatures and climate change.
With a "warming world", he predicted low temperatures would become less frequent and spring could start to feel more summery and tropical.
Ferris said the lowest temperature Tauranga recorded was 1.3C on July 10, while Rotorua got down to an icy -2.3C on August 17.
Rotorua recorded 27 days of frost and Tauranga about 16 over the whole season, he said.
Tauranga saw above average rainfall, with 448mm of rain in winter with the wettest day being June 1. Rotorua also saw above average rainfall with 451mm and the wettest day on August 19, he said.
This year could be a "dress rehearsal for the future" with higher temperatures, tropical rainfall and warmer seas likely becoming the new norm, Noll said.
Rainfall was above average in both Rotorua and Tauranga this winter but the region could expect a dry start to spring, he said.
However, hard and heavy downpours could swing back around for the end of September and start of October, he said.
The rainfall could be compared to tropical downfalls that were hard and fast and could cause flooding and slips, similar to what the Coromandel experienced this winter, he said.
Around November, the Bay of Plenty could begin to feel "summer-like" temperatures as the oceans "heat up quickly", he said.
Federated Farmers Bay of Plenty president Darryl Jensen said the winter months had been a respite for many farmers after an exceptionally dry summer and autumn.
The mild temperatures and decent rainfall meant grass growth had boomed and feed levels were looking bountiful for many, he said.
This gave many farmers time to rethink their business models in case they were to experience another dry spell, he said.
Whether it be new species of grass to grow or stock level changes, he said they needed to be able to weather the extremes.
Many sheep and beef farmers were still battling with stock levels, but a dry autumn meant for a smaller lambing season for many, he said.
Bay of Plenty kiwifruit orchardist Rob Thode said kiwifruit needed "winter chills" to enhance growth which had not come around this year.
Spring was forecast to be dry and with labour numbers at an all-time low, he said a number of factors would make for "challenging times ahead".
Orchardists needed to start looking into more diverse ranges of crops to ease the pressure as having only two types was "extremely dangerous".
If the sector were to be hit with another drought or disease, it would "hurt people a lot", he said.
Different species needed different levels of water and less winter chilling, which was vital in a warming world, he said.
"It is a strange time."