Cyclone Dovi is gathering strength as it storms towards New Zealand with heavy rain and severe gales expected to lash parts of the country today.
MetService today said the cyclone was now a Category 3 storm since passing over New Caledonia.
However, by the time it reaches New Zealand forecasters are predicting the cyclone will have dropped back to a Category 2 storm and unravel as it makes landfall.
The latest projected storm track issued by Weatherwatch.co.nz this morning shows the storm on a collision course with the centre of New Zealand, with its impact to be felt across the entire North Island.
Current estimates have it making landfall on Sunday night on the North Island's west coast.
A slew of heavy rain and strong wind alerts are currently in place across the North Island and top of the South Island.
Heavy rain is expected to start falling in the centre of the country for 40 hours starting at 8pm.
Up to 300mm of rain could be dumped in central New Zealand depending on how fast the cyclone passes over.
Many regions could expect to be walloped by cyclonic gale-force winds, including the top and bottom of the North Island.
Forecasters are warning those living in the lower North Island and upper South Island should prepare for heavy rain, slips and possible flooding. Strong winds and dangerous coastal conditions are also possible elsewhere.
#DEVELOPING: The storm near New Caledonia has intensified overnight and is now Severe Tropical #CycloneDOVI - Category 3.
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 10, 2022
Here's the latest tracking.
We'll have an update this morning with rain/wind maps + a video update for #NewZealand as #DOVI tracks our way this weekend. pic.twitter.com/KY3tfUtBMl
A tongue of tropical moisture had already brought wet and humid conditions to much of New Zealand this week. A state of emergency is in force in Buller where a deluge of rain forced people to be evacuated from homes yesterday.
WeatherWatch.co.nz said the storm was expected to retain Category 2 strength as it dive-bombs into New Zealand this weekend from the north.
"While it will have a lot of intense energy as it moves southwards over the Tasman Sea it is expected to unravel over New Zealand - but that means it will dump a lot of rain here and as it 'falls apart' it will also bring areas of damaging gales into both main islands," said the forecaster.
Today, MetService said the position of the low-pressure centre would become less important in the coming days, with severe weather forecast for many areas of New Zealand not in direct line of the central pressure.
On the other hand, the wind and swell would peak as the low-pressure centre drew close this weekend.
#CycloneDovi
— MetService (@MetService) February 10, 2022
Has made it to a Cat3 since passing New Caledonia - you can make out the eye wall.
You can see the band of moisture bringing rain to NZ already - this is set to intensify today as per the Heavy Rain Warnings: https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5 pic.twitter.com/EyZ2FZAz4j
Weatherwatch.co.nz said heavy rain could even start falling this afternoon about the Taranaki region before setting in over the lower North Island tonight.
The heavy rain would affect the lower North Island and top of the South Island across the weekend.
The strongest winds would likely be during Sunday as the main low crosses over.
#CycloneDovi to deliver heavy rain and gales into parts of #NewZealand this weekend. Slips, flooding and dangerous coastal conditions possible in both islands.
— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 10, 2022
Here's our latest rainfall and wind maps.https://t.co/gb7E1qcpZ3 / https://t.co/D35ySCBYsG pic.twitter.com/3Xbexm9Twu
The government forecaster was due to take over the official warnings for the cyclone today as the system crosses 25° South.