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Home / Rotorua Daily Post

Rob Rattenbury: NZ ripe and ready for UK trade deal

Rob Rattenbury
By Rob Rattenbury
Columnist·Rotorua Daily Post·
10 Jan, 2021 09:00 PM5 mins to read

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British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo / Getty Images

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo / Getty Images

OPINION

British Prime Minister and Arch-Ditherer Boris Johnson has managed to cobble together some sort of deal to ensure that Britain leaves the European Union without having the power turned off.

With that out of the way, Johnson can now turn his doubtful talents for decision-making and strategic thought to how he is going to address his country's terrible Covid-19 statistics.

The beast is totally out of control in the United Kingdom with little sign of life improving there anytime soon.

Another wee issue Johnson will have on his desk for the appropriate minister in his cabinet this week is either enhancing or knocking together a few trade deals with those pesky European nations and also maybe with Canada and the Antipodes, the old farms of Britain.

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Of course, trade will continue with the European Union in some form. It is the UK's biggest trading partner by far with the UK exporting just under 274 billion pounds worth of goods to the EU in 2019 alone. In comparison, Britain exported 1.47 billion pounds worth of goods to New Zealand in the same year.

With the UK having voted narrowly to turn its back on a formal relationship with Europe it will also need to explore new markets and new options.

New Zealand can expect Britain to come calling, if they have not already knocked on Jacinda Ardern's door.

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As a nation battling Covid-19, now more reliant on overseas trade than ever with the demise of international tourism for the foreseeable future, I suspect New Zealand will welcome advances from the old "mother country".

There has been talk since at least before Britain voted to leave the EU about the formation of a fourth international trading bloc after the USA, China and the EU.

Admittedly, this talk has been driven by right-of-centre think tanks comprising of politicians in Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

Our representative and keen proponent of such a bloc is Simon Bridges, National MP and ex-leader of the Opposition.

There has been a talkfest quietly simmering on the back burner for the past four years involving a trade bloc known as CANZUK. The idea of a combination of the four countries is primarily for trade but there is also the possibility of a military bloc and also free movement between the four nations similar to what exists between New Zealand and Australia.

The London School of Economics has predicted that, following Brexit, the British GDP will take a 5 per cent hit in the next 15 years.

Britain needs trade options and, while the export figures from the other three countries are of little comparison to the EU, they could be significant enough for Britain to be bothered with such a deal.

At present Australia, Canada and New Zealand only account for 3.5 per cent of Britain's trading figures combined.

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Preferential bloc trading similar to CER could improve this of course. CER is being held up as an example of how a CANZUK union could prosper. It has worked well for New Zealand and Australia so is a possible template to be followed.

Proponents of a CANZUK trade bloc talk of the similarities in culture, language, history and society standards shared by the four nations. All four nations are democracies and are members of Five Eyes. Australia, Britain and Canada have all fallen out with China in recent months, jeopardising their trading links with that country.

Even though the proponents of CANZUK are right-of-centre politically, they see the election of Joe Biden as President of the USA as possibly a good thing for a CANZUK trade bloc.

It is thought a Democrat-dominated American government would be more outward-looking and open to international trade than Trump's administration. Also, again, we do share similarities in language, culture and democracy with the USA.

There is no suggestion of CANZUK including the USA. Maybe because CANZUK sounds better. Seriously, the USA does not need to be part of a bloc of three smaller nations and one very tiny but clever nation.

The chances of the talkfest becoming a reality are probably more likely now than ever with China continuing to flex its muscles in terms of trade with all four countries. The USA could support such a trade bloc to suppress Chinese influence in the Pacific and Asia.

Sounds good, especially the idea of a CER type arrangement and free movement between the four nations. I am not too sure how effective a military bloc will be considering the massive distances involved. I am sure all four nations already share training opportunities anyway.

Having left-of-centre governments such as New Zealand's accept the idea may be tricky in terms of the fact that all four nations are basically "white nations" which some on the left would criticise as yet a further example of white privilege dominating the world stage.

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