Rotorua Daily Post
  • Rotorua Daily Post home
  • Latest news
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Property
  • Sport
  • Video
  • Death notices
  • Classifieds

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • On The Up
  • Business
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Residential property listings
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
  • Rural
  • Sport

Locations

  • Tauranga
  • Te Puke
  • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō & Tūrangi

Media

  • Video
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-Editions
  • Photo sales

Weather

  • Rotorua
  • Tauranga
  • Whakatāne
  • Tokoroa
  • Taupō

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / Rotorua Daily Post

Markets in free fall as investors panic at possible Trump US election victory

NZ Herald
9 Nov, 2016 02:30 AM6 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Trader Joseph Murray works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo / AP

Trader Joseph Murray works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Photo / AP

The possibility of a Trump victory has hit New Zealand's stock market more than the Brexit vote.

The share market's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 has just closed down 3.34 per cent at 6,664 points.

Compare that to Britain's vote to leave the European Union in June, when the NZX50 closed for the day closed down 2.3 per cent at 6667.8 points.

ASB economist Kim Mundy said there were some big market moves occurring across currencies and equities, as took place during the Brexit upheaval.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"Brexit was so unexpected that it very much caught everyone off-guard. This election, markets were possibly a little bit more on edge given we've already had one Brexit this year. I think it's taken less to spook markets this time around, but we are still seeing some very big moves like we did on June 24 when the UK decided to leave the EU."

S&P 500 futures are down the most since Brexit while the Mexican Peso has dropped the most the most since 2008.

Shane Solly, portfolio manager and analyst at Harbour Asset Management, said a number of leading stocks had been "poleaxed" as the voting showed a swing towards a victory for Trump.

"There is a high level of uncertainty and we are not done yet," he said.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"The swing towards Trump has caught a lot of markets out. The strong showing by the Republicans has certainly riled the markets."

The S&P 500 futures were down 5.2 per cent as at 5:30pm, said Stephen Bennie from Castlepoint Funds. According to CNBC NASDAQ and S&P 500 have halted futures trading for the time being.

US S&P stock futures plunged by 5 per cent or "limit down" - the maximum decline permitted before trading curbs kick in.

That points to Wall Street's S&P 500 market opening more than 5 per cent overnight.

"We're in a sort of Brexit times two situation. Ultimately the markets recovered reasonably well from Brexit," Bennie said.

"This is potentially bigger and it will be a little bit longer before it becomes clear what is going to be the impact of having Trump as US president,"

Among the bigger New Zealand stocks to be sold off were Fletcher Building, down 37c or 3.75 per cent at $9.50, Spark down 14c (3.9 per cent) at $3.43, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare down 40c ( 4.4 per cent) at $8.60 and Xero down $1.05 (5.8 per cent) at $16.95. While analysts said the market had suffered heavily, they pointed out that the market had been extremely buoyant over the last year, and that the selling had returned the NZX-50 index back to June levels.

Shortly after 3.30pm the NZX50 was down 3.54 per cent after being in positive territory since the market opened this morning.

The ASX200 across the ditch was down 3.6 per cent at the same time. One broker compared the afternoon to the shock of the Brexit referendum.

Investors are unloading shares as prospects for a Trump presidency appear to be rising. Dow futures have tumbled 3.5 per cent or 643.00 points to 17,647.00 and S&P 500 futures are down 4.1 per cent or 86.50 points at 2,049.00.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The markets are foreseeing a Donald Trump win, a Westpac market expert says.

The US Presidential race appears still too close to call, but Westpac senior markets strategist Imre Speizer said about 3.25pm that the markets had become volatile in the last hour.

"Up until the last one hour markets were opining that Clinton was looking like getting the win and that's swung around to thinking Trump's going to get the win," he said.

The best indicator of this was the Mexican Peso currency against the US dollar.

"Over the last hour that one has really swung around and has weakened considerably against the US dollar," he said.

"In addition, other good indicators are things like US Treasury yields, which were rising over the last half a day and from the last hour ago they plunged about 15 basis points, which is a lot."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

He added that the US Dollar-Yen rate had plunged, as had the Australian-US and Kiwi-US.

ThinkMarkets, a London-based brokerage, has already called the whole race for Trump according to Bloomberg.

The Mexican Peso has risen from 18.2 to 20.1 to the US dollar.

S&P 500 futures were down 3.8 per cent at around 3:30pm, said Stephen Bennie from Castlepoint Funds.

"I think the markets are becoming a bit concerned about a Trump victory," Bennie said.

The market has fallen straight back to the same level as before the FBI cleared Hillary Clinton of any criminal wrongdoing over her personal use of an email server.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

The markets are treating a Trump victory as a live possibility, Bennie said.

Mark Lister, of Craigs Investment Partners, said markets were "more than nervous".

"Since you've seen Trump pick up a couple of states and some of the polls in crucial battle ground states go his way, markets have very quickly woken up to the fact that this is going to be a lot closer than they might have thought," he said.

"Markets remember the Brexit situation very clearly where they all got caught wrong-footed, were too complacent and things got messy for a few investors."

He said it was "eerily similar" to what happened during the Brexit vote earlier this year.
"But there's still a lot of states to be counted," he said.

JB Were strategist Bernard Doyle said the results so far were much closer than the market would have liked.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

"We're not pretending to try and judge the outcome yet but I think the way the market's behaving, certainly the risk of Trump winning is getting baked-in to at least a coin flip, based on some of the stuff we're watching, even possibly stronger odds than that."

He said US stock futures were down 4 per cent, the New Zealand market was down about 3 per cent and US bonds have rallied about 10 basis points - "classic flight to safety-type of behaviour".

"I guess the only thing that's surprising me a little bit is that the Kiwi dollar's been pretty reasonably resilient. "

Save

    Share this article

Latest from Rotorua Daily Post

live
Rotorua Daily Post

Landslide sparks evacuations, roads closed, homes flooded after storm

12 Jul 12:43 AM
Rotorua Daily Post

'Merry hell' in Mamaku: Village held 'to ransom' by hoons

11 Jul 06:00 PM
Rotorua Daily Post

Bay home crowd rallies behind netball's Magic

11 Jul 05:00 PM

From early mornings to easy living

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from Rotorua Daily Post

Landslide sparks evacuations, roads closed, homes flooded after storm
live

Landslide sparks evacuations, roads closed, homes flooded after storm

12 Jul 12:43 AM

The North Island is expected to get off to a wet start this morning, with lingering rain.

'Merry hell' in Mamaku: Village held 'to ransom' by hoons

'Merry hell' in Mamaku: Village held 'to ransom' by hoons

11 Jul 06:00 PM
Bay home crowd rallies behind netball's Magic

Bay home crowd rallies behind netball's Magic

11 Jul 05:00 PM
Tearful hunter admits shooting and killing friend

Tearful hunter admits shooting and killing friend

11 Jul 05:00 PM
Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky
sponsored

Solar bat monitors uncover secrets of Auckland’s night sky

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • Rotorua Daily Post e-edition
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Subscribe to the Rotorua Daily Post
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP