The big fear for New Zealand Rugby when it was working out when to appoint its next All Blacks coach was being left without any genuine candidates being available to apply.
The governing body reasoned at the end of last year that if it waited until after the WorldCup to run the process, it would almost certainly end up in its worst-case scenario.
Scott Robertson, NZR knew, was in demand. In late 2022 the media rumour mill was in overdrive, suggesting Robertson was wanted by England, Australia and Wales, but the real predator may have been Scotland.
The Scots, it is believed, had drawn up a shortlist of preferred head coaches after incumbent Gregor Townsend signalled he was unlikely to seek a contract extension beyond the 2023 World Cup.
Blues coach Leon MacDonald was also on that shortlist and has been named by the Irish press as the man Leinster want to take over as senior coach.
Jamie Joseph, currently with Japan, is expected to soon announce that he has a new role, which he will start after the World Cup, and there were multiple levels of uncertainty hanging over incumbent coach Ian Foster.
Would he want to stay in the role even if the All Blacks won the World Cup, and if they didn’t, what sort of public angst would there be if NZR, left with what they felt was no other choice, had to reappoint him?
Some, but not all of this thinking stands up to scrutiny, because this worst-case scenario requires everyone to believe that NZR has correctly identified all of its assets to be sure that none other than the ones it was worried about losing would be capable of coaching the All Blacks.
And it increasingly feels like there needs to be a rethink as hiding in plain sight is Clayton McMillan, a man who is building his case as a future All Blacks coach.
In what were horrendous conditions on Saturday night, the Chiefs scrapped their way to a sixth straight win – relying on the passion of their defence and the more effective kicking of Damian McKenzie, whose game management was considerably sharper and more considered than that of his vaunted opposite, Beauden Barrett.
The victory was confirmation that McMillan is driving a revival story at the Chiefs that is every bit the equal, if not more impressive than the one MacDonald is credited for leading at the Blues.
He inherited a team in freefall – one that had lost all eight games in Super Rugby Aotearoa 2020 and had seemingly acquired a magical gift for finding novel ways to self-destruct.
McMillan came in as head coach in 2021 and the Chiefs were almost unrecognisable to the shambolic mess they had been.
There was an obvious grit in everything they did – purpose, clarity and imagination, too.
They made the final of Super Rugby Aotearoa and the semifinals of Super Rugby Pacific last year, and now they deservedly sit top of the table – their rugby a compelling mix as it’s built on structure yet also thrives on chaos.
It’s not yet a record that screams out as undeniably brilliant, but its good enough to make it curious that McMillan is never linked to any future prospects while MacDonald is.
The Blues were a hot mess when MacDonald arrived in 2019 and while he’s made them a harder team to beat, they haven’t morphed into the desired version of themselves when they crushed everything that moved in the first two years of Super Rugby.
There’s a fragility, still, about MacDonald’s Blues – uncertainty within their strategic thinking and an inaccuracy in their execution when they come under pressure.
That was most painfully evidenced in last year’s final when the Crusaders pulled off the ultimate seek and destroy job on the Blues lineout, and again in Hamilton on Saturday when the visitors couldn’t find that composure – that one killer punch - that champion teams need when they are locked in a war of attrition.
Based only on the rugby played by the Chiefs and Blues in the last two-and-a-half years, there is no evidential basis to explain why MacDonald is seemingly on a fast-track to higher-profile jobs and McMillan isn’t.
Their Super Rugby records suggest they are both on the right track – both capable and enterprising, but neither has yet built a champion team.
But based on how both teams have tracked so far in 2023, McMillan is the more compelling prospect and needs to be injected into the conversation about potential All Blacks coaches.
