The concept did rely on a few pieces of the puzzle falling into place, and was rubbished by some, but it's worth having another look at the idea after the releasethis week of New Zealand First's list.
To be fair, I probably did Fletcher Tabuteau a disservice when I wrote my editorial two months ago, as he wasn't one of the four I'd been thinking of at the time. (Though he hadn't at that stage been confirmed as the local New Zealand First candidate.)
Mr Tabuteau now faces the very real possibility of entering Parliament as one of the party's top-ranked candidates after being placed at No4 on the list.
Should New Zealand First reach the 5 per cent threshhold required to enter Parliament - and they've been polling there or thereabouts - their top six candidates will be MPs.
Remember, New Zealand First surprised many with their 6.6 per cent showing at the last election, gaining them eight seats in Parliament. Polling in the previous two weeks (the time between the Teapot Tapes incident and the election) had them anywhere between 2.2 per cent and a nearly accurate 6.5 per cent, but the end result surpassed any of the polls.
Of course, there's only one poll that counts - the big one on September 20 - and nothing is guaranteed ahead of that.
But on current polling Rotorua could have at least three MPs from two electorates - the Rotorua MP, the Waiariki MP and, if Annette Sykes does not win that seat, she would likely get in as a list MP. Add to that the possibility of a local New Zealand First MP and this little city could find itself very well-represented over the next election cycle.
