Editorial: Could we have 4 MPs?

Tamati Coffey

As Forrest Gump's momma once said, life is like a box of chocolates - you never know what you're gonna get.

(Unless, presumably, you read the handy guide inside the lid).

Similarly, it could be said politics is like a box of chocolates. What exactly are we going to get in three months' time?

Well, the ranking of Labour candidate Tamati Coffey at 30 on the party list this week raises the possibility - not hugely likely but still, a possibility - that Rotorua could end up with four MPs.

Here's one or two ways it could happen:

National's Todd McClay wins the Rotorua electoral race, but Labour polls sufficiently well, at least 34 per cent, to see its candidate Tamati Coffey enter Parliament via the list.

Or, if Coffey were to win Rotorua, McClay - a minister and number 23 in National's MP ranks according to their website - would surely come in on the list with only five list MPs ranked higher.

Meanwhile, in the Waiariki electorate, let's say the Maori Party's Te Ururoa Flavell wins the seat, but Internet-Mana's party vote of at least 2 per cent, combined with Hone Harawira winning Te Tai Tokerau is enough to get Laila Harre and Rotorua's Annette Sykes in as well (assuming she retains spot No2 on the Mana list).

I admit that's a lot of "ifs" that need to fall in place - both Labour and Internet-Mana would need to improve on current polling for starters - but it's only a couple of scenarios, and it certainly gets you thinking about the potential outcomes of this year's general election.