BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander writes: the "real estate activity in some parts of the country is at the early stages of a cyclical recovery", and it is obvious Auckland is in this stage.
Over the years, we have always followed Auckland with both rises and falls, albeit three to nine
months later. So, if Auckland real estate is on the move, we will follow - maybe at the end of winter.
When Tony does his analysis, as well as looking at the number of sales and values, he looks at other factors such as the number of people through open homes, auction clearance rates, number of appraisals etcetera - information contributed by real estate companies.
Relating this back to our Rotorua market, our residential sales numbers have increased quite well in the last three months - January to March, with 75 house sales in March - and there is a bit of a mixed message coming from real estate companies about the activity in April. Some feel activity has levelled off a bit and others are saying they are having good sales, with a number of cash buyers.
The general feeling is that there are buyers out there, but there is a good selection of homes for them to view and they are slow to commit.
I predict April house sales will be in the seventies.
- Ian McDowell is the Rotorua spokesman for the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand and principal at McDowell Professionals Real Estate
