Bay of Plenty's population growth second highest in country

Forty one per cent of Tauranga's overall growth between 2018 and 2022 was due to an increase in 15 to 39-year-olds.

Tauranga's population is continuing to climb as many other cities - including Rotorua - are experiencing population loss, new data reveals.

Te Ngira (Institute for Population Research) senior researcher Shefali Pawar says new Statistics NZ data shows Bay of Plenty's population growth has been driven by increases in the Western Bay of Plenty and Tauranga.

She said Tauranga had seen the highest population growth recorded among all the urban centres in New Zealand, meanwhile Rotorua had seen a decline in numbers.

Pawar said this reflected a nationwide trend of rural populations declining due to students and working-age people moving from remote areas to urban centres for education and career opportunities.

"When a region loses its young population, it also loses its reproductive potential which in turn slows the rate of population increase and accelerates the onset of structural ageing," she said.

"That is probably what is unfolding in Rotorua and Whakatāne."

She said it was important to take age and ethnic composition changes into account when looking at regional population changes as it helped to explain the shifts, she said.

Forty one per cent of Tauranga's overall growth between 2018 and 2022 was due to an increase in 15 to 39-year-olds, she said.

She said population changes nationwide had been "significantly impacted" by the pandemic, along with internal migration and border closures resulting in negative net international migration.

Statistics NZ data shows Tauranga's estimated population in the year to June 2018 was 142,500, which increased to 153,000 in 2020.

As of the same time last year the figure rose to 156,100 and stood at 158,300 as of June this year.

The Western Bay of Plenty's estimated population in 2018 as of June 30 was 53,000. This increased to 57,000 in 2020 and then 58,500 in 2021.

Provisional figures as of June 2022 show the figure stands at 59,700.

The population estimate for Rotorua in 2018 as of June 30 was 74,800. This increased to 77,100 in 2020 and then dropped to 76,900 in 2021.

As of June 2022 this provisional figure decreased by another 100 people (76,800).

The regions with the highest percentage growth were Northland (1.3 per cent), Bay of Plenty and Tasman (both 1.1 per cent), and Waikato (1.0 per cent).

Tauranga City commissioner Stephen Selwood. Photo / Mead Norton

Tauranga City Council Commissioner Stephen Selwood said the provisional population figures confirmed the city was "continuing to grow quickly" which only reinforced the importance of steps the council was taking to manage growth.

He said this included investing in infrastructure, community facilities and city centre development needed to cater for the current and growing, alongside working with partners to ensure that "new housing opportunities come on-stream".

The latest figures indicated growth was slowing in areas such as Auckland, and people were looking to find "better lifestyle options" for themselves and their families, he said.

"Our climate, environment and vibrant job market obviously make Tauranga a popular choice, but we have some significant challenges ahead of us to accommodate the people who want to come here, while ensuring that the lifestyle our current residents love is not compromised and that we celebrate our heritage and protect our natural environment."

He also said current projections indicated Tauranga's population was likely to top 200,000 people by 2048, meaning around 28,000 extra homes were needed for people to live in.

Priority One chief executive Nigel Tutt said the figures came as "no surprise" as Tauranga and the Western Bay had a "history of high population growth".

He said the figures underlined the need for "good planning and investment" around housing supply and transport infrastructure.

Rotorua mayor Tania Tapsell. Photo / Andrew Warner

Rotorua mayor Tania Tapsell said the region had lost growth due to lack of international migration, something that had been a "key driver" behind the population before the pandemic.

She said while growth for Rotorua was "a good thing" as it meant more jobs and opportunities, the region was also suffering from a housing shortage.

"So [the] council is working hard to support housing options and development."

Western Bay mayor James Denyer said it was pleasing to see the region remained a popular place to live, with people "voting with their feet and wanting to move to our district to live".

"Growth does come with challenges, so for Tauranga and the Western Bay of Plenty sub-region, the housing and transport issues are particularly acute."

A positive was that a larger ratepayer base provided funding for councils to afford improved community facilities and services, he said.

Asked why the region was continuing to see population growth, Denyer said the region had "a lot going for it" with a "great climate, a beautiful and varied environment, good job opportunities and relative proximity to other major centres".