Live birth numbers in the Bay of Plenty increased 6.7% from 2016 to 2025.
Birth rates in the Bay of Plenty have risen in the past decade, but experts say rising living costs are “without a doubt” reshaping residents’ family plans.
According to the latest data from Stats NZ, 57,705 live births were registered in New Zealand last year, slightly fewer than the 58,341 births recorded in 2024.
The total fertility rate was 1.55 births per woman. This was down from 1.57 in 2024 and shows a continuing trend of relatively low fertility levels in New Zealand.
The Bay of Plenty had a 6.7% increase in the number of births in the last decade, rising from 3864 in 2016 to 4122 in 2025.
The region’s highest number of live births was in 2022 at 4257. The number dipped in 2023 and 2024 before rising again last year.
The region’s estimated population of 351,500 in June 2025 has increased 16.6% since 2016. When compared to the number of births, this shows much of the population growth is coming from people moving to the area.
The median age in the Bay of Plenty reflects this. It was 39.7 years in the 2023 Census, compared with 38 years in 2013.
The region’s affordability has been cited as one possible reason why the Bay’s birth rates are increasing at a slower rate compared to overall population growth.
Priority One chief executive Dave Courtney said “family formation” was often delayed when younger households felt financially stretched, which had long-term workforce implications.
“Labour supply is already lagging behind economic growth, so attraction, retention and upskilling become critical to maintaining productivity and investment.”
He said multiple factors could impact the decision to have a family.
“Housing affordability and living costs will be in the mix but are not necessarily the determining factors.”
Courtney said slower birth growth meant the region could not rely on natural population increase to sustain the future workforce.
“The focus is on building local skills, increasing workforce participation, and actively attracting people who want to live and work here.
“Economic growth now depends on talent, infrastructure and housing keeping pace.”
Rotorua NZ head of strategy and investment Justin Kimberley said the latest birth and population data reflected trends seen nationally and internationally.
He said while Rotorua had a “relatively” young demographic profile, including a high proportion of Māori with birth rates higher than the national average, demographic projections pointed towards an ageing population and a smaller proportion of working-age residents.
“An ageing population presents growth opportunities in health, wellbeing and aged care.”
Kimberley said this reinforced the need for a proactive and diversified economic development strategy.
“Our focus goes well beyond skilled migration; we know we need to increase workforce participation, lift productivity, invest in skills development and support innovation and automation.”
He said productivity remained a “systemic challenge” and regions like Rotorua needed to play a role in “shifting the dial”.
“Demographic change is a headwind, but with the right strategy, it can also be an opportunity.”
Stats NZ’s latest data suggests women are having children later, with the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 in 2025 reaching a record low nationally.
Every region in New Zealand had a decrease in the proportion of births to mothers aged under 25 years between 1995 and 2025.
The Bay of Plenty had the largest decrease, dropping from 37% of births in 1995 (the highest proportion of all regions that year) to 18% in 2025.
Some social organisations believe this could be because the cost of living is impacting people’s decisions of when – or if – to have children.
Pregnancy Choice Tauranga director Janice Tetley-Jones said “without a doubt” the cost of living was impacting people’s decisions whether to have a baby or not, “as it often means that both parents must work to get by”.
She said sometimes the decision about pregnancy came down to financial matters, “like affording groceries and clothing when they are already feeling stretched financially”.
Pregnancy Choice Tauranga runs Graced Op Shop, where it tries to keep prices low for mothers-to-be.
“We say ‘take what you need, and give what you can’, and if they can’t give a koha (donation), then they are welcome to take the items needed,” Tetley-Jones said.
She said the cost of childcare was also significant in the decision to have children.
“Due to the cost of living, we also find that grandparents need to be in work to get by, and are therefore unavailable for babysitting or to support the new family.”
Family Works Bay of Plenty area manager Julia Peake said it was likely financial factors played a role in the decision-making around having children.
“In most cases, the overall cost of living is placing stress on family functioning and wellbeing.”
She said examples included families missing meals or going hungry due to financial stress and regularly accessing food parcels to make ends meet.
“Childcare costs affect family decision-making regarding housing and employment, and can reduce families’ ability to engage in counselling and education programmes.”
Kaitlyn Morrell is a journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post. She has lived in the region for several years and studied journalism at Massey University.