Auckland shows signs of returning to life, Bay of Plenty takes top spot in regional economic survey

Bay of Plenty claimed top spot of ASB’s Regional Economic Scoreboard for the first time on the back of a bumper kiwifruit season, while Auckland also showed signs of recovery.

The latest scorecard covering the second quarter of the year was marked by a “chilly” economy, said ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley.

“We’re seeing small pockets of warmth in what’s otherwise an economically chilly quarter,” he said.

“Retail spending is holding up, and consumer confidence is showing signs of life. That’s encouraging as we head into the second half of the year.”

But overall economic conditions in Q2 remained muted, with both inflation and the unemployment rate ticking up, the report said.

Tourist arrivals and export volumes also declined, while annual net migration continued to ease.

Bay of Plenty soared nine spots from its Q1 ranking, with the region’s strong performance driven by a standout kiwifruit season, resilient employment growth, and rising consumer confidence.

“It’s fair to say kiwifruit has brought home the trophy,” Tuffley said.

“A strong season has boosted incomes in the Bay, supporting improvements across employment, retail and housing.

“The Bay’s labour market has shown impressive resilience, even as nationwide conditions remain subdued. With employment growth holding steady and optimism rising, the Bay is set for continued momentum.”

The South Island continued its economic dominance over the past year with Southland, Otago and Canterbury taking the remaining top four spots.

Southland jumped from eighth to second place in Q2, buoyed by strong commodity prices and a resilient housing market, with house prices rising 3.4% and sales up 32%.

Meanwhile, Auckland rose five spots from 10th equal to fifth in the latest scorecard.

Tuffley said Auckland showed “promising signs of life” in the June quarter.

“Strong population growth and more confident consumers helped lift activity across housing, retail and construction,” he said.

“While there’s pockets of pain, particularly around employment and house sales, the region is beginning to show the resilience we expect from the country’s largest economic centre.”

Wellington slumped to last in the scorecard as persistent weakness in consumer confidence, house prices, house sales and population growth exacerbated an already soft start to the year.

ASB economists said they expected the recovery in Wellington to be the slowest of the 16 hubs.

Looking ahead to 2026, Tuffley said improvements were on the horizon, albeit slower than initially projected, as the Reserve Bank signals more cuts to the Official Cash Rate (OCR).

Tuffley said the 15% US tariffs imposed on New Zealand goods are expected to weigh slightly on the country’s economic recovery.

“But the full impact remains to be watched.”