Warm, wet winter likely as Northland to escape worst of country's cold blast

Snow is expected for the South Island, but only a slight drop in temperature is expected in Northland. Photo / NZME

Wintry weather is coming for much of the country but Northlanders are only in for a slight chill.

Temperatures would likely be around the June average, despite a cold blast affecting the South Island at the end of the week and into next week, MetService meteorologist Dan Corrigan said.

"This isn't so much the normal cold southerly event. The coldest air is coming across the South Island from the west, whereas westerlies just continue over the North Island."

This meant the drop in temperature was likely to be much less dramatic in the north than the south, where snow was expected to the lowest levels this year.

It was difficult to be confident of what temperatures would do at the end of the week and into next week, he added.

"It's still quite far away so we'll keep people updated with more information over the course of the week."

While the South Island gets a dumping of snow for its skifields, Northland would have rain off and on into next week, Corrigan said.

Metservice predicted slightly colder weather for Northland when the cold blast hits the south.

High temperatures over the next week are expected to fall from 19C in Whangārei.

Overnight lows of 9C were predicted next Tuesday in Whangārei and Kerikeri, but minimum temperatures would otherwise remain in the double digits.

Metservice expected highs of 16 in Kaitaia, Kerikeri and Dargaville.

The week wasn't expected to produce lower than average temperatures in Northland, but June was the time winter normally set in, Corrigan said.

"The normal winter cycle, as we head into June, sees the days getting shorter and the sun's rays get weaker at this time of year."

Above average rainfall is expected for Northland this winter, as well as above-average temperatures. Photo / NZME

NIWA's latest climate summary for last month showed above-average temperatures for Northland, with most of the region around one degree above average.

NIWA meteorologist Chris Brandalino said warm temperatures were likely to continue in Northland and around the country.

"Our expectations are that temperatures will continue to be warm," he said.

"Of course there's variability every year, some years have been cooler than others. But in terms of the long-term trends our temperatures have warmed over the last 100 years."

A new national hourly rainfall record for a low-elevation station (less than 500m
above sea level) was set at Maungatapere, where 103mm of rain was recorded from 4am to 5am on March 21.

Despite this, the NIWA report showed rainfall for most of Northland was at or slightly below average in May.

Brandalino said this would likely change, however, with a warm, wet winter on the way.

"Our expectation for the Northland area is for winter rainfall to be above normal and above average temperatures are likely for the winter."

Temperatures were either above average or well above average in every region of New Zealand during May, according to NIWA.

The country experienced the equal-second warmest autumn on record, partly due to usually high sea temperatures around New Zealand.