Spring is in the air in Northland with a warmer than average winter now replaced by an expected warmer than normal spring.
Today is officially the first day of spring, but recent fine weather has belied any thoughts of the region being in winter.
That's because the thermometer has hit 2C plus in the past few weeks - hardly the sort of temperatures you normally get in winter.
As well, New Zealand's coastal water temperatures are well above average for the time of year and are expected to have an upward influence on air temperatures through spring.
Today is forecast to be largely fine, with showers later in the day and a high of 19C, with similar conditions tomorrow, while Thursday and Friday are expected to be largely sunny.
And Niwa has forecast that the temperatures for September to the end of November will likely be higher than normal, while rainfall will be about average for next the three months.
Niwa says there's a 60 per cent chance that temperatures are very likely to be above average.
For September – November air pressure is forecast to be higher than normal to the east and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand. This is expected to be associated with La Nina-like northeasterly air flow.
The probability for oceanic La Nina conditions is 57 per cent. The majority of Niwa's criteria for "La Nina Alert" have now been met, including increased trade winds in the equatorial Pacific, an atmospheric response that is La Nina-like, and an expectation for these conditions to continue.
• More heavy rain for Northland as region still cleaning up from last month's devastating storm
• Northland floods: No hope for drying out in storm-hit Far North
• Weather: Late winter storm - heavy rain to hit New Zealand including Auckland, Northland
New Zealand's coastal water temperatures are well above average for the time of year and are expected to have an upward influence on air temperatures through spring.
Air temperatures are most likely to be above average in all regions of New Zealand.
Cold snaps and frosts can be expected in typically colder locations early in the season.
Northeasterly winds are expected to continue to leave northern areas, such as Northland, the Coromandel Peninsula, and the East Cape, exposed to sub-tropical rain storms while interior and western areas of the both islands remain sheltered from moisture, particularly in South Canterbury, Otago, the West Coast, and Southland.