Farmers hoping for showers soon

The El Nino weather pattern is likely to bring another drought to Northland this summer, like the one that browned these paddocks in Pouto in 2014. Photo / File

Northland farmers are praying for a storm or two packing decent rain during summer to ride out the El Nino effect which has seen temperatures soar to record highs in parts of the region as drought looms.

The seasonal climate outlook for December to February, released by the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), predicts temperatures in Northland are most likely to be near average and rainfall below average.

Soil moisture and river flow levels are equally likely to be near normal or below normal over the next three months. But, with soil moisture levels already well below normal following four or five years of lower than normal rainfall and three droughts in Northland, ground conditions are expected to get even drier.

Strong El Nino conditions continue unabated in the tropical Pacific where the latest monthly sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded +2C.

One of the risks of El Nino was drought, but Northland Rural Support Trust co-ordinator Julie Jonker said NIWA's prediction of four tropical storms this summer could benefit farmers provided there was sufficient rain and fewer easterly winds. "Regular southwesterly showers will help.

"Current conditions show Northland is such an unusual area to farm in, but it's worth pointing out that each El Nino affects regions quite differently," she said.

Ms Jonker said the trust had been discussing the effects of El Nino with other stakeholders since September which meant farmers were better prepared this time.

"A lot of them, especially beef farmers, are quite proactive and haven't increased their stock and they've also been making plenty of supplement."

Kokopu dairy farmer Denis Anderson said most of the region's farmers were pretty much set up for summer but needed showers to keep them going and to avoid "rogue" easterlies.

"It's wise to hedge your bet a little bit.

"In February and March or even late January we can get easterlies coming through and they can make it difficult."

NIWA has also released its monthly climate summary for November which revealed parts of central Northland recorded temperatures which were 0.51C to 1.20C above the month's average.

Kaikohe featured prominently as the town recorded the highest mean air temperature at 16.7C and the mean maximum air temperature at 21.1C since records began in 1973.

Similarly, Kaikohe had the highest daily maximum air temperature (25.8C) since records began in 1973.

Whangarei joined Kaikohe in recording the highest daily minimum air temperature at 19C and 18.5C respectively.