Northland's Omicron outbreak may have already reached its peak, two experts say, but the worst in regards to Covid hospitalisations and deaths may be yet to come.
Northland's Omicron outbreak may have already reached its peak, two experts say, but the worst in regards to Covid hospitalisations and deaths may be yet to come.
Experts believe Northland's Omicron outbreak may have peaked but warn the worst may be yet to come in regards to deaths and long term Covid.
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker and Professor Michael Plank, from University of Canterbury's Te Pūnaha Matatini (Teaching/Research Organisation), both say Northland may be overits Omicron peak with yesterday's 536 cases 30 per cent below the highest number of cases of 765 on March 11.
Baker said it appeared Northland's peak occurred about a week ago with numbers fluctuating since then.
"But 536 cases is about 30 per cent below that peak, which would indicate the peak is probably over in Northland.
"It peaked in Auckland about a week earlier than in Northland and while we can never be totally sure about these things, the trend [in Northland] is heading down,'' he said.
However, the information relied on people self-reporting positive RAT results as currently 95 per cent of cases were being found through the test, Baker said.
"Estimating the true prevalence of infections versus identified cases is very difficult," they said.
"Our current best estimates, based on our patterns of cases compared to overseas experience and looking at our testing coverage, are that we are accounting for approximately half of all actual cases."
While Baker said the peak may well be over for Northland, the numbers of hospitalised Covid cases will likely rise and more deaths were likely in the region.
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker.
''That's what happens when we look at how Omicron has developed overseas, and it's happening the same way here.
"So while the peak may be over, the worst may yet be to come in terms of long Covid issues and deaths.''
Plank said the trend for Northland has flattened out, although cases numbers jump around daily, which suggests it has either peaked or is likely to peak in the next few days.
''Hospitalisations and deaths lag behind cases so these will continue to increase for longer,'' he said.
''Also, just because total cases have peaked doesn't mean the outbreak is on the way down everywhere. Particularly with large rural areas, different communities will experience clusters at different times. So overall the descent from the peak is likely to be slower than the climb.''
Northland District Health Board reported 536 new cases of Covid-19 for the region in the 24 hours to 6am yesterday.
These include 238 cases in Whangārei District, 239 in Far North District, and 59 in Kaipara District. There are 4202 active cases in Northland and 4575 people have recovered from their illness.
Michael Plank, Professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Canterbury.
There are 25 cases currently in hospital and the district health board reported no new Covid-related deaths in the region.
Northlanders can now book an appointment for a Novavax vaccine. Appointments are available from Monday, March 21, in Kaitāia, Kerikeri, Whangārei and Dargaville. Bookings can be made via the Book My Vaccine website.
Meanwhile, Attorney-General David Parker said New Zealand will be returning to normal faster than we might imagine given the Omicron outbreak had not overwhelmed the health system.
"Next week we will be making announcements on what happens to vaccine certificates and vaccine mandates.
"So as we pass through the Omicron peak I've got some confidence that we're going to return to normality probably faster than people expect," Parker told the AM show yesterday.
While ruling out any major changes to come into effect within the next seven days due to the current outbreak, Parker said the peak had not overwhelmed the public health system.
"Even though we're at peak the hospital system whilst under pressure is under control and we've got enough ICU beds."
He defended director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield who maintained the health system is not at a crisis point.
"I'm with Dr Bloomfield here. Ukraine's a crisis, women and children being blown to bits, people in shelters, cities without food and water. Covid is a crisis with millions of people dying around the world. The health system is under pressure because of Covid and other factors but I think he's right to call it under pressure, not a crisis."
