Bouncing back from Covid-19? What the financial markets are telling us

The S&P/NZX50 has bounced back from its March low point. Photo / File

Financial markets are starting to price in less dire consequences arising from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Few doubt New Zealand and much of the world are in a major economic downturn, but recent price action suggests there is some cause for optimism.

While it's early days, some confidence has been taken from declining rates of infection in many parts of the world, and from New Zealand's success in eliminating the virus.

That's been reflected in currency, bond, commodities and share markets.

"When we first went into lockdown, no one really knew how long this process would last," BNZ market strategist Jason Wong said.

"We have managed to eliminate Covid-19, which has meant a swift end to the restrictions, so the current situation we are now in is probably the best scenario you could have imagined two months ago," he said.

The New Zealand dollar slumped to US57c in late March, when it looked like the global economy was about to disappear down a big hole.

Now that it is showing signs it might climb out, the NZ dollar is picking up.

The Kiwi this week traded near US66c - up US9c from its late March level.

The sharemarket's S&P/NZX50 had slumped to 8498 points when concerns about the outbreak were at their worst.

Today the index has roared back to 11,278 - less than 1000 points short of its all-time high.

In the debt markets, the likelihood of interest rates going negative has diminished, although the overnight indexed swaps market suggests it could still fall to zero by the middle of next year from 0.25 per cent at present.

The yield curve has turned slightly more positive, which is seen as an encouraging, albeit tentative, early sign.

The two-year swap rate sits at 0.25 per cent and the 10-year swaps at 0.86 per cent, and the difference between the two has widened by 15 basis points over the past fortnight.

The Reserve Bank, which initially spent $1.8 billion a week on buying government bonds to keep a lid on interest rates, has pulled back, although it still spends a hefty $1 billion a week to support the market and keep interest rates low.

Financial market strategists are turning to the high-frequency data - outside of the normal run of the mill statistics - to get a steer.

Strategists said US weekly job claims data, power usage, and information from Google and Apple points to conditions being serious but less dire than was first thought.

Around the world the growth in Covid-19 cases has slowed in the major countries - China, the US, UK and Europe - although emerging countries such as Brazil are still firmly in its grip.

"Europe is opening up and you can see that in the high-frequency data," Wong said.

"Risk assets are being bid up and we are seeing that in equity markets, commodities, and the commodities-based currencies, such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars," he said.

Westpac senior markets strategist Imre Speizer said earlier expectations of analysts all around the world were overly gloomy.

"That's not to say that the reality is good. It's just not as bad as those overly pessimistic forecasts."

He said the Reserve Bank had tapered its bond buying, but in a slight, gradual manner.

"At $1b at the moment, it feels about right - enough to hold the market steady," he said.

"The market stabilised and they quite rightly calibrated at what they feel might be the right number."

If the data continues to beat "depressed" expectations, Speizer said the local market would back away expectations of a lower official cash rate.

It was clear that equity markets had priced in a catastrophe in March.

"I don't know if we quite got a catastrophe, so they are right to bounce off their lows."

Speizer said that while difficulties remained, the outlook was less bleak.

The "wall" of Government support here and around the world was higher than ever before and was not going to go away in hurry, he said.

"That's a fundamental factor that is going to play out for quite a while yet."