Weather watch: Rain coming but it won't be enough

ENDURING CONDITIONS: There are more thunderstorms on the horizon for Hawke's Bay but the rainfall won't be the respite the dry Takapau plains needs. Photo / Warren Buckland

Rainfall is on the horizon for Hawke's Bay but it won't deliver respite from the enduring, dry conditions in the region.

Metservice meteorologist Tom Adams said thunderstorms and localised downpours were forecast for the week.

"Things are definitely getting a bit more changeable in the coming week. As far as Hawke's Bay's going it's still dry but, whereas we've had day after day of sunny weather earlier this month, we are going to see more changeable set-up."

"It doesn't necessarily mean this is going to be the drought break that we're all after. If you're underneath the thunderstorm you're going to get a lot but it's going to be very localised so won't affect the area as a whole."

Earlier this month Hawke's Bay was identified as one of five North Island areas experiences soil moisture deficits in Niwa's weekly Hotspot Watch.

The watch, which monitors soil moisture across the country to help assess whether severely to extremely dry conditions are occurring or imminent, showed "much of Hawke's Bay" was a hotspot and this determination has since persisted.

Mr Adams said the region would sway in a two-day cycle this week; changing from northerlies one day to southerlies the next.

"We've had a high pressure over the country, and that's been centred pretty much slap bang over the whole country for the start of the month. As we ended November we had a lot of thunderstorms crop up but that was due to instability higher in the atmosphere.

On Monday a front moving up the South Island would arrive at the North Island and bring rain, albeit a fast-moving weather feature, the meteorologist said.

"There will be heavy falls and thunderstorms, especially about the ranges, so some people could get some decent rain out of it but most people will just get a short spell."

"That eases out during the evening but winds will turn southerly so things will be a bit cooler and then Tuesday we get a respite where it's a relatively fine day with light winds."

Mr Adams said the feature would weaken on Wednesday, with the possibility of showers, with southwesterlies before the forecast cleared up again on Thursday.

With Christmas just seven sleeps away, he said this changeable weather pattern would endure right up until the festive day.

"At the moment it looks like this two-day cycle will continue all the way through to Christmas.

"It's looking likely that there will be a front approaching somewhere in the west and north westerlies over the country, which should spell a fine day for the Hawke's Bay."

Temperatures this week were forecast to hover in the low to mid 20s with a weekly high of 26 degrees on Tuesday.