A fresh cyclone threat is looming in the Pacific that forecasters are keeping a close watch on. It comes as those regions already devastated by Cyclone Gabrielle are facing heavy rain warnings today and tomorrow.
Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said while it was still early days to talk about any potential impact on New Zealand there was a heightened risk of a cyclone forming next week. “We have been watching this potential for this feature since Gabrielle came down,” said Noll. “What we’re seeing in the first 10 days of March is an increased risk for cyclone formation. We’re in the very early days so the information of what may happen to New Zealand is in the speculative stages at this point.”
Until the cyclone had formed its future track was “quite uncertain”, he said.
Noll said this year similar weather features had tracked down towards New Zealand and this was another reason to be keenly aware of its potential future track.
With La Nina there was an increased chance cyclones moved a little further west than south in the Pacific basin and come quite close to New Zealand.
“That’s definitely something for Kiwis, especially those in the North Island, to keep a very close eye on the forecast. It’s not imminent or immediate but it maybe something we’re going to have to face in the first 10 days of March.”
He said at the moment immediate concern centred on any rain falling across saturated parts of the North Island.
“We know that during La Nina episodes it’s the northern and easter North Island that’s typically exposed to the heaviest rainfall and we’ve seen that time and time again. Oftentimes Mother Nature likes to repeat herself and there’s a bit of memory in back there.
“If something were to come down there might be a preference for an impact in the northern and east of North Island. Those finer details won’t really crystalise for a little time yet.”
Hawke’s Bay is today under a fresh heavy rain warning with the cyclone-ravaged region set to be hammered by a 48-hour deluge.
MetService is also warning Auckland, East Coast, Wairarapa and Coromandel are also in store for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms that could see intense downpours.
The latest weather warning for Hawke’s Bay was this morning upgraded to an orange heavy warning with the region expected to get up to 200mm of rain about the ranges and north of Hastings including the hard-hit Esk Valley and Wairoa.
This morning the flood-hit region’s Civil Defence warned people to be prepared to evacuate and be wary of rivers and places where stopbanks had been damaged by the cyclone.
🟡🟠 Severe Weather Warnings and Watches for Heavy Rain Updated 🟡🟠
— MetService (@MetService) February 22, 2023
• Hawke's Bay upgraded to an Orange Heavy Rain Warning.
• Gisborne, Wairarapa remain on Watch
• New Heavy Rain Watches for Auckland, COP, western BOP
Full details at https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5 pic.twitter.com/wqiUmHZAEF
The rain is expected to start falling this morning and last until 10am Saturday.
The forecaster said the heaviest falls were likely from 3pm tomorrow with peak rates of 30mm an hour possible.
In Auckland the rain is to fall tomorrow from noon until 10pm.
MetService says the region should expect periods of heavy rain with thunderstorms.
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It said rainfall amounts might approach warning criteria.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across Coromandel and Gisborne north of Tolaga Bay.
MetService is warning that for Coromandel Peninsula from Coromandel township south, the Hauraki Plains and Bay of Plenty from Te Puke west that some of these thunderstorms may become severe.
While the electrical storms were expected to ease by night the forecaster is warning of flash flooding and a fresh threat of slips. Driving conditions were also expected to be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain, it said.
⛈ Severe Thunderstorm Watch ⛈
— MetService (@MetService) February 22, 2023
Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon for the Coromandel Peninsula, the Hauraki Plains, western Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne.
Some may become SEVERE, with downpours of 25 to 40 mm per hour. https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5 pic.twitter.com/tlivC1ZO51
MetService said a complex trough of low pressure would remain over the North Island for the next few days before moving away to the south late Saturday, bringing rain with heavy falls and possible thunderstorms.