Tararua seventh most vulnerable property market - report

Tararua is still an affordable option for home buyers.

Dannevirke's property market could be one of those to take a tumble, based on CoreLogic figures, should the market experience a downturn.

However, real estate agents remain sceptical.

The Tararua is the seventh most vulnerable district in the property market.

Otorohanga was calculated to be the most vulnerable with Timaru being the least vulnerable.

Figures are calculated on a number of factors: affordability, credit behaviour, property demand, property listings vs sales volumes, local economy and employment and investor activity.

The report from CoreLogic states there are a number of factors which could influence a downturn.

For instance, those areas with a reliance on international tourism could perform more poorly the longer the borders remain closed.

Areas that have experienced the strongest recent growth rates may be more vulnerable to increased interest rates, the report stated.

Some Tararua businesses have pointed to a lack of housing supply as a reason some job vacancies are going unfilled.

However, Harcourts Dannevirke owner Heatha Edwards said the findings shouldn't be taken at face value.

"We can't always rely on stats or forward predictions, as the first Covid lockdown had the experts predicting the real estate market was going to tank. It didn't."

Since 2016, property values in the Tararua have experienced an average annual growth of 35.5 per cent.

According to the QV price index, a house valued at around $164,000 in 2016 would now be valued at $458,000.

In the upper quotient, a house valued in 2016 at around $274,000 would now be $635,000.

Tararua property values are relatively low compared to Manawatu or Hawke's Bay.

Edwards said the market was still steaming along.

"We are still achieving excellent prices for our vendors."

She said Dannevirke was a viable option for many out-of-town buyers wanting somewhere nice to live in a decent town with lots of services.

"As they work on finding improved options to get to Palmy, then interest will only continue to climb for Dannevirke and Woodville as affordable options for working families and buyers looking for value for money as opposed to the cities, which are getting prices out of reach for the average buyer."

Interest rates had risen for the first time in seven years but Edwards believed that would nudge buyers to seriously consider Dannevirke, Woodville and Tararua as a whole as an affordable option.