HOPEFUL: Graham and Deborah de Gruchy. PHOTO/FILE
Most people in New Zealand and Australia seem to spend the first few days of November living in hope of picking a winner in the Melbourne Cup - we spend at least $10 million on it.
But Hawke's Bay farmer Graham De Gruchy, who owned New Zealand's first multi-million dollar winning galloper, from which he bred 2000 Melbourne Cup winner Brew, lives in hope that sooner or later the "colonies" will reassert their authority over the great race.
Such is the invasion of northern hemisphere horses, Australasian hopes have become locked out to the extent that with the 24 starters to be known by 9pm today the vast majority of punters have never heard of most of the horses.
Worse, the form of many runners is largely undisclosed, a racing term which in this case means the horses haven't had a lot of races and there's not a lot of knowledge about what they've beaten, or what they've been beaten by.
The northern invasion has so many flying under the radar the Australian intelligence agencies should be investigating.
Those in possible contention have been known for several months, since September 1 when a list of 140 nominations was announced. It's now down to an order of entry of 42, less big Kiwi hope Mongolian Khan. Winning the Caulfield Cup a fortnight ago gave it an automatic place in the field, but an attack of colic has forced it to be withdrawn - just about as tragic as if the All Blacks were to be beaten in the other cup tomorrow morning.
De Gruchy says with the withdrawal of Mongolian Khan, which would have been no worse than third favourite, the race is wide open, with a need to respect Japanese hope Fame Game, as the bookmakers have made it favourite.
It was sixth in the Caulfield Cup, its only other race on the trip, but it has twice won a 3400m race in Japan - 200 metres longer than the Melbourne Cup.
Similarly Irish galloper Trip To Paris, which has won at 3800m and 4000m, and was runner-up to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup.
"But the one I like is Preferment," De Gruchy says.
"It might be a year early, maybe, but he could be right in it."
It's about as close to a Hawke's Bay connection as one gets in this year's big race. The trainer, Chris Waller, from Foxton but now based in Australia, selected the horse at a Karaka sale and, says Mr De Gruchy "probably had a bit of help from Rob Mulcaster ... who came from Hawke's Bay."
Preferment won the Victoria Derby as a 3-year-old last year, and was last month runner-up in the Turnbull Stakes, a race which but for the sudden emergence of the northern visitors often acts as a Melbourne Cup pointer.
The big Australian hope is Criterion, trained by David Hayes, and another is The Offer, trained by Gai Waterhouse and winner of the 2014 Sydney Cup plus this week's Bendigo Cup, carrying a huge weight of 59kg.
"But then you get the Irish trainer, Aidan O'Brien, who rocksin with two horses [Bondi Beach and Kingfisher] who we all know nothing about," De Gruchy says.
Sentimental punters have no option but to include 10-year-old global campaigner Red Cadeaux, the only horse to have run second three times in the race.
De Gruchy's own sentiment surrounds sire Zabeel, which died at the age of 19 in September and sired three Melbourne Cup winners.
"I'll be having a look," he said.
Preferment was sired by Zabeel, while the only other Zabeel-linked horse still with any hope is Zanteca, No42 on the list and which must win the 2500m Lexus Stakes at Flemington today to get a place in the field.