Now the Big Dry strikes in winter, too

Taihape Rd farmer Selwyn Dorward, like many other Hawke's Bay farmers, worries about the future months after a succession of dry months, including one of the driest on record in June. Photo / Duncan Brown

Farmers wait with bated breath as a return to some "normal" winter weather is forecast after one of the driest Junes on record.

According to MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths, a combination of more southerlies than usual and spells of high pressure means New Zealand can expect a relatively dry July. "The exceptions are eastern areas of both islands, where near normal July rainfall totals are forecast."

For farmers such as Paul Robinson of Kahuranaki Station, and Selwyn Dorward of Alness Farm, Taihape Rd, something more than normal is needed. Rainfall across the Heretaunga Plains has been less than 70 per cent of the January-June average.

In the Wairoa district, it is worse, with the 339mm of rain at Mahia this year only 51 per cent of what can usually be expected in the first six months of the year.

Mr Robinson, who is based east of Hastings, said yesterday there were places on the property he would barely dare venture in June and July, but this year it was dry and patches on the hills remained as bare as they were in summer.

West of Hastings, Mr Dorward said: "It certainly let us know it was winter last month, it was so cold.

"But we had only 19-20mm of rain," he said.

"There's no growth. It's a bit of a worry going into spring."

In much of the Hastings district, Napier and the Wairoa district, rainfall has been below average in seven of the past nine months. While detailed figures are not yet available, the situation has been obvious at MetService's Hawke's Bay Airport weather station, where the rainfall for June was 18.2mm, less than a quarter of the June average of 82.1mm.

Rainfall has been lower about three times in the past 25 years but it follows a worrying trend.

In May, there were 48mm, compared with the May average of 77mm, and in April there were 62mm of rain, compared with the April average of 76mm.

The April-June rainfall was 128mm, only 60 per cent of the 213mm over the same quarter last year.

The Hastings rainfall of 38mm for last month was less than half the station's June average of 82mm.

At Mahia, the 64.8mm of rain last month was just 41 per cent of the June average of 159.3mm.

July is traditionally the wettest month of the year, with an average 122mm in Napier, 145mm in Hastings and 148mm at Mahia.

MetService meteorologist Ms Griffiths said: "While the southerlies and highs over New Zealand cause us to accumulate less rain than is normal, we certainly cannot rule out extreme rain events."

Behind the weather events is a strengthening El Nino effect, reaching an extent not seen since 1997-98.

"International climate models indicate further intensification of this event, with a solid chance that will continue into early 2016," she said.

El Nino typically reaches full strength towards the end of the calendar year.

After a warm start to July, temperatures are forecast to slide below average next week.

However, temperatures should then move closer to average for the second half of the month.

"We expect temperatures to continue to swing as we move into July, but settle near average for the month as a whole," said Ms Griffiths.