Hawke’s Bay weather: Some rain was forecast, but where is it?

A week without the forecast showers and moderate rain has farmers further on edge about the possibility of drought .

It has brought more regular meetings of the Rural Advisory Group in a season the experts say could bring anything from drought to storms.

Farmer, district councillor and Hawke's Bay Rural Advisory Group chairman Marcus Buddo addressing the sector at the Hawke's Bay A and P show last month.

Many areas have gone four to five months with below-average rainfall, the worst scenario leading to what was known as the typical Hawke’s Bay summer.

Advisory group chairman Marcus Buddo, a Poukawa farmer and Hastings district rural councillor, says “science” suggests the coming months could produce anything from “useful rain” to a “prolonged dry”.

“There is a good chance that we’ll see a good dose of rain spread over several days at some point,” he said in an update for group members.

“The risk is that it comes too late to be helpful, and we need to be mindful that it takes time for the pastures to recover.”

A second scenario is rain in short and damaging bursts that would otherwise do little to improve soil moisture. With a cyclone season and warmer sea temperatures “there’s a chance that we get average rainfall” that runs off before it can soak-in.

The third is more drought-inclined, and he said: “There’s a chance that these stubborn highs stick around, and we only see sunshine for a while yet. Another month of quite dry weather could be problematic.”

The last drought declaration in Hawke’s Bay was in 2020.

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council team leader air and science Dr Kathleen Kozyniak, citing the vagaries of La Nina and even the Indian Ocean Dipole, said warmer than average sea temperatures are fuelling air temperatures and “raise the risk of wetter rather than drier conditions”.

MetService had late last week forecast showers and rain on the radar for much of Hawke’s Bay from Sunday through this week, but the regional council’s network of about 75 rain gauges from the ranges to the coast show little has arrived. Many areas have had no rain since Saturday, and just 45%, mainly in the Kaweka and Ruahine ranges, having more than 5mm in the past seven days.

Buddo said “preparation is important”, with setting dates to take action if necessary to avoid such situations as being caught with stock on property when the grass has disappeared.

In some cases farmers have been destocking, but Buddo says that is “planning”.

MetService was on Wednesday still forecasting some showers and rain before the weekend, but no temperatures higher than 25C over the next week.

Doug Laing is a senior reporter based in Napier with Hawke’s Bay Today, and has over 51 years of journalism experience, 41 of them in Hawke’s Bay, in news gathering, including breaking news, sports, local events, issues, and personalities.