Hawke's Bay weather: 'Actual' rain on the way this weekend, more than 100mm possible in ranges

Early morning fog at Windsor Park, Hastings, Friday June 18. Photo / Warren Buckland

Those who need rain on their pastures and gardens will be looking forward to the next few days with a heavy rain watch in place for parts of Hawke's Bay.

MetService meteorologist Rob Kerr said it's going to be fairly wet in the region starting on Saturday afternoon, with a large low moving over the country.

"We should start seeing the rain moving over the North Island on Friday night."

MetService has put a heavy rain watch in place for the southern and central ranges of Hawke's Bay, and the coastal hills south of Napier.

The warning is in place from 9am Sunday, June 20 to 12am Monday, June 21.

A WeatherWatch.co.nz spokeswoman said areas most exposed to the heavy rain include Bay of Plenty, Kaikoura area, and now they've added Hawke's Bay to the list.

"Hawke's Bay is incredibly dry at the moment with drought conditions dominating into the winter months," she said.

A foggy morning in Hastings ahead of a rainy weekend. Photo / Warren Buckland

"While showers have brought hit and miss short-term relief the long-term impact of the drought has been noticed a lot more now that winter has arrived."

The spokeswoman said the rain coming over the weekend will be patchy in Hawke's Bay but the areas with heavy falls will be slow moving.

"Latest estimates show Sunday to be a wet day, with 40mm forecast for Hastings, with another 13mm or so falling on both Saturday and again on Monday, bringing the potential total to around 65 to 70mm," she said.

The WeatherWatch.co.nz spokeswoman said there would be similar totals in Dannevirke and Eskdale.

"In fact, Eskdale may have over 80mm low down and over 100mm higher up in the ranges. There may be some wiggle room with these numbers.

"As a general rule of thumb, if the rain band slows down the totals can even double in some locations, but if it speeds up then the totals can halve," she added.

MetService's Kerr said rainfall accumulations may approach warning amounts.

"The low will float more easterly on Sunday and that's really when it's going to start getting potentially heavy for the Hawke's Bay region," he said.

"On Monday south to southeast winds will push the rain back north again, with heavier rain falling again over the Bay - a lot of it will be in the ranges."

Saturday will see highs of 14C in Napier and Hastings, with overnight lows of 9C.

Wairoa will be slightly colder on Saturday with a high of 13C and Waipukurau just 12C.
On Sunday Hastings will reach a high of 15C and 16C for Napier.