LOUIS PIERARD
A giant lahar - a fast-moving torrent of volcanic ash and water - caused by Mt Ruapehu's Crater Lake bursting, could be just days away.
And it promises to be an impressive spectacle as a million cubic metres of water - 400 Olympic pools' full - bursts through the crater
lake's natural volcanic ash dam, charges down the eastern slope gathering soil and rocks into a lahar and cascades down the valley on the eastern side of the mountain to Tangiwai and out to sea.
Tangiwai: That doom-laden name, which means "weeping waters", resonates powerfully in living memory. It was the scene of New Zealand's worst "rail" disaster when on Christmas Eve, 1953, a laden express train from Wellington to Auckland plunged into the Whangaehu River after a lahar had destroyed the rail bridge just minutes earlier. Of 285 people on the train, 151 died. Twenty bodies were never recovered. They were swept 100km down the river and out to sea.
This time the lahar will be double the size. But unlike 53 years ago, everyone is prepared. A monitoring system upstream in the river has long been installed and signalling equipment modernised to warn of broken tracks.
Bridges have been strengthened, a 300m stop bank has been built to prevent the lahar from spilling into Lake Taupo's catchment and a rapid response plan is in place to evacuate the affected area and close roads and bridges in 90 minutes.
Vulcanologists from overseas who have joined New Zealand scientists have been watching the rising lake for the past several years, no doubt appreciating the rare chance to witness and film a lahar.
But what makes the impending event particularly unusual is that there should be a lahar at all. A straightforward remedy existed to remove the natural hazard. In 2003 it was suggested a 100m trench be bulldozed to allow surplus lake water to drain away.
It was a sensible solution but rejected by Conservation Minister David Carter because it offended spiritual values of local Maori. At the time, the Minister was castigated for being politically correct, when a few days' bulldozing work costing $200,000 could have removed the problem.
Lahars are a natural feature of Ruapehu - it is estimated that 60 have swept down the same path in the past 150 years.
The name Whangaehu - it means a muddy, large body of water - denotes the regularity of the event. Should "what has always been" continue to be so when it is in our power to change it for the better? Granting such cultural dispensation will need more than dramatic film footage to compensate if something goes horribly wrong with the massive lahar.
It is an intriguing departure from the precautionary principle that would normally govern the actions of ministers. Warning systems are not foolproof. While a lahar is not expected to endanger residential areas, one cannot account for every eventuality. If someone dies or loses their livelihood from a preventable calamity who will be accountable?
Let us hope that the generous concession made to local Maori and environmentalists is matched by a willingness to be fully answerable for the consequences. It will not just be vulcanologists for whom the slow-motion disaster provokes an interest.
LOUIS PIERARD
A giant lahar - a fast-moving torrent of volcanic ash and water - caused by Mt Ruapehu's Crater Lake bursting, could be just days away.
And it promises to be an impressive spectacle as a million cubic metres of water - 400 Olympic pools' full - bursts through the crater
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