Battle of Central Hawke's Bay looms as election decider

Two combatants in a crucial National-held seat - List MP and Labour hopeful Kieran McAnulty (left), and new candidate Mike Butterick, defending National's hold in the electorate.

Parliamentary hopeful Mike Butterick will tomorrow make a final election campaign visit to Hawke's Bay as the National Party makes a last-ditch effort to stop Labour winning enough seats to govern alone.

Defending National's hold on the Wairarapa electorate, which includes Central Hawke's Bay, Butterick will be attending a bi-annual Careers Expo at Central Hawke's Bay College, in the heart of an area which some pundits say could be one of the most direct pointers to the outcome.

Political analyst and Hawke's Bay Today columnist Mike Williams said, based on the UMR poll leaked publicly early on Wednesday - a 50 per cent party-vote for Labour and a sub-30 outcome for National – both Wairarapa and National-held Hastings-centred Tukituki would both fall to Labour - if the percentages were applied across the country.

If both went it would indicate Labour could govern alone.

Wairarapa, which has been as much a three-way race as any in recent elections – with now-retiring MP Alastair Scott and List MPs Kieran McAnulty (Labour) and Ron Mark (New Zealand First) in Parliament for the last three years – has for some time been seen as a bellwether seat, an indicator of trends.

National had a majority of 2872 at the 2017 election, compared to more than 6000 three years earlier. Significantly, McAnulty's 13,642 votes at the last election were among the highest for a runner-up nationwide, while Mark's 7753 were among the highest for a third-placed candidate.

There were some high turnouts at the polls three years ago, notably in the age bracket 60-69yrs, where more than 90 per cent of those on the roll voted.

Both National and New Zealand First are expected to bleed votes in the electorate this time, with its northern reaches of the Tararua and CHB districts a particular battleground, comprising the area of the deep-blue pre-MMP electorate of Pahiatua, part of which in the initial MMP electorates carve-up of 1996 was included in Tukituki.

Williams described Wairarapa as a "highly-marginal seat" and cited three reasons it could go to Labour.

Crucially, he said, McAnulty was seen as "very hard-working" in the electorate despite being a List MP, while National had a candidate who was new to politics and campaigning. The third was the indication of a late poll known for its accuracy.

But he said that when National polled just 21 per cent in 2002 it had managed to retain several of the provincial seats, and the campaigning by Judith Collins had suggested it was directed at similar territory.

McAnulty was yesterday banking on the "three years' hard work" reputation, but noted a promising sign in CHB – a recent door knock in which residents of an entire Waipukurau suburb said they were voting Labour.

"I haven't ever struck that before," he said, adding the "7000 conversations" with constituents in the campaign gave him the view Wairarapa wants an MP of his position – in Government, and promoted in his first term to the position of Junior Whip.

Butterick was named National candidate less than five months ago, and accepts that pales in comparison with the experience of McAnulty, with two elections spanning six years and three of them in Parliament.

He had leased the farm out short term and done 18,000km on the road in an electorate which stretches well over 200km south to north, and tried to "keep it simple".