There are other points scenarios but the formula is simple for Poverty Bay. Win. If they don't, their season is over.
If Poverty Bay were to beat and overtake Horowhenua-Kapiti, they could still finish in the top four although that is unlikely.
Mid Canterbury and North Otago are on 20 competition points and are at home against lowly Buller and bottom-of-the-table King Country, both winless this season.
A bonus-point win by either team would scupper any chance Poverty Bay had of making the Lochore Cup final, but they do have a better point differential if there was to be a tie on competition points.
The Bay are expected to be at full strength tomorrow including the return of fullback Andrew Tauatevalu from injury suffered a month ago against West Coast.
It's the first real wet weather game of the year for Poverty Bay after days of heavy rain forecast to continue.
Poverty Bay co-coach Miah Nikora said they were preparing to adjust their game plan to cater for the weather, with training last night being the last chance to work on the finer details.
“It's going to come down to being a pressure game. Whoever can build the most pressure on the opposition will do well in this type of weather.
“The kicking game will come into it big-time. The kick-chase pressuring the receivers and finding grass in behind the defence will all play a big factor.”
After a “long and interrupted” year of rugby, he said the team were eager to do their season “justice”. “The boys are really keen on going another week. . . but it's not just one side that's trying to keep their finals hopes alive.”
With a five-win and two-loss record this year, Horowhenua Kapiti had proven through their performances that they would provide a tough challenge, he said.
“They've shown this year that they are a tenacious side. They will come into the game with a lot of fire and passion, and we'll have to match that.”
The venue for the 2.30pm match has been changed due to the weather. Poverty Bay Rugby Football Union is working through the logistics of this in relation to Covid-19 and will update this on its Facebook page.
Toru Noanoa, Shayde Skudder, James Higgins, Fletcher Scammell, Dan Law, Keanu Tamatea, Stefan Destounis, Tamanui Hill, Mario Counsell, Kelvin Smith (c), Tione Hubbard, Ted Walters, Penikolu Latu, Taine Aupouri, Paoraian Manuel-Harman. Reserves: Rikki Terekia, Jarryd Broughton, Quade Tapsell, George Whakatope, Ethine Reeves, Andrew Tauatevalu, Te Peehi Fairlie.