“The first piece, and the one that came into play this weekend, is the tropical winds that have been streaming southwards from islands like Vanuatu. The second is how warm the oceans are around New Zealand at the moment. The third is climate change.”
Whether the climate change component made up 5 percent or 30 percent of the puzzle was not known, Mr Noll said.
“But what we do know is that temperatures have warmed about a degree in New Zealand over the past century and 2016 has been a standout, the warmest year since records began in 1909.”
However, the “toastiness” of 2016 did not necessarily mean the warming was accelerating, he said.
“This year has certainly been very very impressive in terms of temperature but we think it’s an exception due to a number of factors, some natural, some enhanced by climate change.
“Overall, it has been a steady climb over the past 100 years and we think this year’s conditions are simply the result of a perfect storm of conditions coming together.”