At Covid’s mercy: dire modelling prediction for Wairoa

NUMBERS ‘REALISTIC': Kahungunu Executive clinical lead Julie Duffell believes modelling predicting the deaths of 14 unvaccinated people if there is a major outbreak of Covid-19 in Wairoa is 'realistic'. 'I'm sure there will be some sad stories,' she said. A recent tangi in the township has raised concerns about community spread. NZ Herald picture

Modelling predicts at least 14 people will die of Covid-19 once the virus takes hold in Wairoa and town officials fear the moment of widespread cases there could be nearer after a large tangi recently.

Medical experts have spoken of how rural communities are more vulnerable to Covid-19 than many people living in New Zealand's metropolitan areas.

For the people of communities in the Wairoa district, that vulnerability is quickly becoming a reality.

Julie Duffell, clinical lead of the Kahungunu Executive — the health, social and housing provider based in the town — said limited health resources in the area, a low vaccination rate and high at-risk populations of Māori, plus elderly with “long-term conditions” or youngsters unable to be vaccinated, had created big concerns.

Prior to Omicron's arrival in the area — which has at least 77 confirmed cases — the Wairoa Pandemic Plan had been prepared by Ngati Kahungunu Wairoa Taiwhenua Incorporated in collaboration with Wairoa District Council, local iwi and health and social service organisations.

It makes for grim reading in the town which does not have infrastructure to care for seriously ill Covid-19 patients. The plan estimates 14 unvaccinated people could die in a “major outbreak”, and a further 140 could become “very sick”.

Ms Duffell said she believed those numbers were “realistic”.

“I am sure there will be some sad stories. There was a tangi and two positive people from out of town attended, so now we are starting to see that spread in our community.

“It was a huge tangi, a very well-loved nanny who died early and unexpectedly.

“Those cases linked to the tangi are just starting to show up now and of course they have been running around for three or four days not aware that they are positive, so all of their whānau will turn positive.”

Wairoa Mayor Craig Little continues to urge residents to get tested amid fears of a growing cluster.

The projected death toll was stark and would hit hard in an area like his, he said.

“Wairoa has been lucky to have avoided widespread transmission in the two years that Covid-19 has been in New Zealand.

“It is a concern big-time. We are just hanging on really and keeping our fingers crossed.

“That is all we can do here.

“People just have to every day realise that Covid-19 is around. We cannot be complacent.”

Wairoa Hospital has just eight in-patient beds and no intensive care capability or ventilators for seriously ill Covid-19 patients.

Mr Little said the limited health resources in the area amplified concerns.

“That means we are in a bad space if there was an urgent need. An ambulance ride to Hawke's Bay Hospital in Hastings would take two hours, or there is potential for patients to be airlifted by helicopter.”

Other logistical issues in the town are just one GP clinic and one chemist.

Mr Little urged those who had not been vaccinated to do so, saying most cases he knew personally had recovered “pretty quickly” if they were fully vaccinated.

The area was as best prepared as it could be, he said.

But he stressed that “the vulnerable are the ones we have to look at — those that have heart problems or might be recovering from other operations.

“I would hate for any of those to fall through the cracks.”

Julie Duffell said a room was being set aside for Covid-19 treatment at Wairoa Hospital but due to the facility's small capacity, patients needing hospital treatment probably faced being transferred to Hastings.

Local health providers, including iwi organisations and the local district health board, had been as pro-active as possible to spread the message in the community to get vaccinated against Covid-19, and also for residents to get tested immediately if they suffered any symptoms.

“Most people are taking it seriously and most people are really concerned about looking after their kaumatua and mokopuna.”