A chance to talk, a foregone conclusion

A109 Light Utility Helicopter flight with mayor Gisborne City from the air in November 2023.

Opinion

Consultation now under way on the Government’s $204 million cyclone recovery package for this region is an exercise in local democracy that will no doubt have some benefits — a korero on important issues is always going to be worthwhile for affected residents and decision-makers — but clearly can have only one outcome, community approval.
As the council says with regard to the other option, of declining the funding package (which also includes a $30m interest-free loan for the council): the region would miss out on a substantial amount of money to assist with recovery; it is unlikely that the now 47 Category 3 properties in this region deemed too dangerous to live in could be bought out — meaning more uncertainty and stress for the owners; more properties would move into Category 3 “because we can’t afford the millions of dollars needed to reduce flood risks”; and we would still need to fix our local road network and make it more resilient (estimated cost $465m-$725m).
Accepting the “all or nothing” package and its cost-sharing requirements will involve breaching limits in the council’s 2021-2031 Long-Term Plan (LTP) and Financial Strategy.
The council’s 50 percent share of property buyouts and 10 percent share of flood risk mitigation work will entail it spending an estimated $21m more in the year to June 2025 than it had budgeted for when putting together the LTP, meaning the average rates increase for 2024/25 under this scenario is forecast to be 6.3 percent — above its agreed 5.5 percent rates cap.
(Note, rejecting the offer would also likely mean higher rates rises to meet additional recovery costs.)
Council debt for 2024/25 and 2025/26 is forecast at 132 percent and then 136 percent of revenue, above the 130 percent cap in its financial strategy.
There is no intention to amend that strategy now, “given the one-off nature of the offer and that a 2024-2027 Three-Year Plan process will be completed by June 30, 2024; there is an intention to amend the financial strategy to 150 percent debt to revenue” — state recommendations adopted by the council at a meeting last week where it approved the recovery package consultation document.
That document says the council’s preferred option of accepting the Government’s support package, “will provide those most affected by the impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle with some certainty to move forward, as well as provide financial certainty for recovery priorities such as roading and stopbanks. It will enable us to move forward as quickly as possible.”
We now get to confirm our support so the council can make a final decision on November 1 and crack on with the important next stages of the region’s recovery from Gabrielle.