TOP STORY: Tsunami could kill 260 in Bay, says report

By Natalie Bridges
An estimated 260 people could die and another 2100 could be injured if a four metre-high tsunami hit Tauranga - but the siren warning system that could save Bay lives is back on hold.
A Civil Defence report commissioned by the Government in response to the Boxing Day tsunami has revealed the Western Bay is one of the areas most vulnerable to such a natural disaster.
"The common attitude is that it will never happen here," said Barry Low, manager of the Western Bay of Plenty District Council's emergency management team.
"(But) it can happen here and may happen here. There is a denial of natural habitats that we live with."
The new figures coincide with a delay in getting the tsunami siren system - three years in the planning - up and running in the Bay of Plenty.
Mr Low, who has been heading the tsunami alarm project, said 11 tsunami sirens were supposed to be working before Christmas but a technical hitch means that has been postponed until some time in the New Year.
"The target was to get them tested and up and running before Christmas. That is not now going to happen. We have had to rethink the way we are going to activate the system. I am loathe to put a date on it but I am aiming for early in the New Year."
Three years ago, the Tauranga and Western Bay councils joined forces to form a Civil Defence emergency management team to oversee the development of a warning system and evacuation plan for coastal communities from Waihi Beach to Pukehina.
But the enormity of the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 led the councils to make their plans more explicitly known to the public as a means of reassuring people a similar death toll would not occur here.
Mr Low said a major part of the tsunami alert programme is public education.
"It's no good having a system if people don't know what to do when it sounds. We're talking to communications at the council about the best way we can reach people, leaflet drops, through radio, television. But it will come down to what we can afford."
A multi-text messaging service - to which the public can subscribe so that in the event of an emergency they would be notified by text message - is another option being investigated.
The risk of being hit by a tsunami in the Western Bay is greater than first thought, according to the Civil Defence report, which says the risk is almost equal to that of an earthquake occurring.
The East Coast of New Zealand was deemed to be the highest risk because it is exposed to waves generated by earthquakes on South America's west coast. But the area could also be affected by tsunamis generated by local earthquakes.
The report recommends a warning system be put in place in the Bay to lower the "moderate" chance of "multiple fatalities."
But Mr Low said the councils have always been aware of the potential risk tsunamis pose to the Bay and feel that the siren warning system already underway meets that recommendation.
"I'm very confident we have done the right thing. We've always been aware of the tsunami threat and about three years ago we really started looking at the warning system which was quite ineffective."
Plans are also being drawn up to arrange signposting of the major evacuation routes and police traffic management in the event of an emergency.
Mr Low was concerned about the lack of public perception of tsunamis.
"I'm disturbed by some of the content [of the report] when I start looking at levels of public awareness and perception of the threat."
Mr Low said the report would be discussed by the emergency operation group which includes members of the police, hospital, fire service, insurance industry, and telecom who meet regularly.
Civil Defence welfare co-ordinator Gloria Oliver agreed the Western Bay public were not prepared for an emergency like a tsunami and there was a general lack of awareness about the very real possibility that one may occur.
"I don't think there is [enough awareness] from the feedback from meetings we are having. We have had a couple of meetings, in Te Puke and Katikati with the public and with agencies that deal with emergency incidents. With the feedback from them there doesn't seem to be much awareness about what to do."
In the event of an emergency, Ms Oliver said welfare centres would be set up in a safe haven, such as Te Puke or Rotorua which were more inland.
The Te Puke and Katikati meetings were held by the Civil Defence unit to establish a network of agencies such as Work and Income, Victim Support, SPCA and Children, Youth and Family, that would kick in with support should a disaster occur.
Training programmes for members of the public who wish to volunteer their support during an emergency will happen next year.
"Anyone who wants to be involved in the training plan for next year should get in touch with me. The first session will be about the welfare centre, what it is and why it exists, so that we have people who know what to do," said Ms Oliver.
For information about how to prepare for a disaster, see the Western Bay Civil Defence website: www.cdwestbay.govt.nz.