Stephanie Worsop: Neither Simon Bridges nor Todd Muller can win the war for National

Todd Muller and Simon Bridges.

COMMENT:

It's the ultimate battle of the Bay and will be hard-fought.

But in the end, both contenders will likely lose.

Bay of Plenty MP Todd Muller is challenging for the leadership seat of the National Party, held precariously by Tauranga MP Simon Bridges.

The decision will be made today at the party's crisis Caucus meeting.

Muller may have little name recognition outside the Bay of Plenty but he could prove a formidable opponent to Bridges, who has been plagued with dwindling popularity due to tone-deaf comments, bad political timing and poor delivery of his messages.

But Bridges may be able to hold on, if not only for the fact rolling a political party leader right before an election rarely has the desired outcome.

Whoever comes out on top will win the battle but not the war.

If Bridges stays, he will only be delaying the inevitable because National will lose this election and he will be rolled soon after.

Politics is mostly a popularity contest. Bridges doesn't see it that way but I think many people vote with their hearts so if they don't like you, they won't vote for you.

By refusing to stand down, Bridges is also risking the party losing more seats, based on dismal poll results earlier this week.

If Muller takes the top position, he will have the advantage of a clean slate but will face the Mt Everest of climbs - beating Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

She's charming, likeable, a good communicator and above all else, has proven she can lead us through a crisis, staring down some of the biggest catastrophes we have faced in recent years.

Is she a shoo-in this election? Right now, I'd say yes. There would have to be some major scandal to overshadow her strong leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic, mosque shooting and White Island eruption.

So Muller's best hope is that with a bit of charisma and some well-timed political moves, he could at least ensure the party recovers some popularity and retains more seats until the 2023 election.

That's why ultimately it doesn't actually matter who wins the National Party's leadership today because I don't believe their stint will be a long one.

It has become more than a whisper National is just biding its time until newcomer Christopher Luxon gets on his feet and becomes the party's saviour leader.

It's the right move, it's just not one the party can make yet.

Today's outcome will have its consequences but there is a bigger war being fought that I believe will see both Bridges and Muller left out in the cold.