More research needed to grow Bay of Plenty companies

Prof Paul Spoonley was the keynote speaker at the SmartGrowth 2020 seminar held at the ASB Arena. Photo/John Borren

The big challenge for the Bay of Plenty in the next two decades is going to be adjusting to disruptions in the 21st century economy, says Massey University demographics expert professor Paul Spoonley.

While the Bay of Plenty can expect to see continuing population growth, the region and the country as a whole was going through a transition as fertility drops and immigration takes over as the major source of new people. Establishing a solid research and development base in the region was going to be a key factor in future growth, Professor Spoonley said.

"The service areas such as elder care, retirement, and tourism are the strong growth areas," he said.

"If there's a gap, it would be that ability to scale up the [research and development] activity in the city and not rely simply on other service areas such as tourism or elder care. Where are your new century jobs going to come from? That's a major challenge."

Professor Spoonley was speaking yesterdayahead of the first in a new series of presentations organised by Smart Growth in partnership with Priority One and the Tauranga Chamber of Commerce, around the theme, Smart Talk, Future Thinking.

Smart Growth independent chairman Bill Wasley said the initiative was about facilitating community awareness, understanding and having conversations on long-term spatial planning issues affecting the region looking 20, 30 and 50 years ahead. It was the first of what Smart Growth hoped would become a frequent conversation with three to four events a year, Mr Wasley said.

Professor Spoonley said the Bay of Plenty, along with the Hamilton/Waikato area could expect to grow as part of the golden triangle as a result of spillover from Auckland. He added that Auckland was expected to be at the centre of almost two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth in the next two decades.

The Bay of Plenty's net migration loss in the past decade had recently been transitioning to a net gain for two reasons, he said.

"One is you are seeing a growth in the temporary worker population, particularly in dairy and horticulture, but also in elderly care. And second, there's a spillover effect as migrants arrive and possibly settle in Auckland, but then look for businesses or work in the areas immediately adjacent to Auckland."

Professor Spoonley said he was not ignoring the fact that Tauranga had a number of technology-focused companies and was working hard to increase the local tertiary education offering. And, he noted, the Port of Tauranga was a strong positive factor in the region's growth.

"But remember, we are anticipating that between 40-50 per cent of jobs that exist in 2017 will not exist in 2027. That's the size of the digital disruption that is going to occur."

Technology companies were open to relocating to regions such as the Bay of Plenty, but they wanted to be able to locate in areas where there were other strong technology companies, Professor Spoonley said.

Crown research institutes such as Scion in Rotorua were absolutely beneficial, he said.

Tauranga didn't yet have the information generation of cities such as Hamilton or Palmerston North, which had a large core university base, he said. "Twenty-first century industry absolutely relies on R&D innovation to feed off."

Priority One last week confirmed it was bidding for funding from the government's regional research institute fund to create an innovation lab in the city, with support from local companies.

Priority One chief executive Nigel Tutt said he agreed with Professor Spoonley on the importance of developing the R&D base.

"That's one of the main reasons why we are right behind the regional research institute proposal," Mr Tutt said.

"We completely support that and believe additional R&D investment in the region is absolutely needed to support our future growth through technology-led businesses."

Distinguished Professor Paul Spoonley
-Massey University's pro vice-chancellor (College of Humanities and Social Sciences).
-The editor of Rebooting the Regions - Why low or zero growth needn't mean the end of prosperity.
-An expert in population trends, labour markets, the Auckland driver effect, and regional futures.