What Argentina did to the All Blacks the Bay of Plenty can do to Tasman.
That's according to Bay of Plenty rugby historian and statistician Brent Drabble, who says the Steamers are known to "rise to the occasion" and there is no reason they can't win their semifinal.
Statistically speaking, win or lose this weekend the Bay of Plenty Steamers will do better than they ever have in premiership finals.
Bay of Plenty take on Tasman in one of two Mitre 10 Cup semifinals this weekend and have already improved on their previous best finish in the competition.
According to Drabble, 2004 - the same year Bay of Plenty celebrated their first Ranfurly Shield win beating Auckland 33–28 - was the only other year that Bay of Plenty reached a semifinal at premiership level, finishing the season in fourth place.
The team won the inaugural National Provincial Championship title in 1976, but at that time there were no finals to be had, with the winning team being the side who had the most points at the end of the season, he said.
If the Steamers win their Saturday night match, and Waikato beat Auckland in the other semifinal, Bay of Plenty will secure a home final, which will be played in Rotorua on November 28 - and that would be their first time reaching a final in the premiership.
Win or lose, Drabble says they should finish third, which will be the best they've done at top tier level finals.
They're going into tomorrow night's match with six-win and four-loss record but Drabble is confident the Steamers can beat Tasman.
He said if the Steamers continued the way they have been playing, a win is possible this weekend.
"They rise to the occasion," he said.
"Look what Argentina did at the weekend ... there's no reason why the Bay can't do the same thing," Drabble said.
"At the end of the day if we lose we'll finish third."
Bay rugby identity Terry Leaming, aka Hori BOP, who is something of an unofficial mascot for the Steamers, said he was "over the moon" and would start his road trip down to Nelson today to cheer on the boys on Saturday night.
The last time the Bay of Plenty played Tasman the Steamers came off second best, beaten 33-7. But none of that will matter this weekend.
"Who cares what's happened until now," Hori BOP said.
"It's anyone's game at the end of the day, we're a champion team," he said.
He said Bay of Plenty had what it took to make it to the final and had no doubt that could happen, bringing the final back home to the Bay of Plenty.
He encouraged as many supporters as possible to grab their Bay colours and make their way to Nelson to support the Steamers.