Swan unfazed as tide takes a sharp turn

CANBERRA - As the leaders of both major parties ploughed through Queensland yet again yesterday, Treasurer Wayne Swan was refusing to be daunted by a grim new set of numbers.

A new analysis of voting intentions in Queensland and across the border in New South Wales had shown a dangerously sharp turn against the Government in the two states, sufficient to thrust the Coalition into power if confirmed at the ballot box on August 21.

"I don't see every opinion poll as being gospel," Swan told Fairfax Radio. "I don't see every opinion poll as being inevitable."

The Government's problem is that for the past two weeks every poll has been moving against Labor and Prime Minister Julia Gillard, with the two latest putting the Opposition either neck-and-neck or ahead by the tip of a nose.

Worse still, the tide has been turning most significantly in Queensland and NSW, which are likely to decide the outcome of the election.

And of the two, the most threatening for the Government is Queensland, which is why Gillard and Abbott have spent so much time there since the campaign began, and why both parties will hold official launches in Brisbane.

The two leaders used the state to promise largesse to opposite ends of the voting scale: Gillard to promise early payment of tax benefits to young families - including A$500 ($623) upfront as an advance payment on the A$5294 baby bonus - and Abbott a plan to give companies up to A$3250 to hire unemployed workers over 50.

Both also took a slap, Gillard from teachers for continuing funding for private schools for another three years, and Abbott from business leaders over his paid parental leave scheme, to be funded by large companies.

But it is Gillard who is feeling the heat from swinging voters in the nation's most volatile electorates.

Of the 30 marginal seats that could decide whether she or Abbott is the next prime minister, 15 need a swing of less than 2 per cent to change hands in Queensland and NSW. In Queensland, Labor holds 10 seats by less than 5 per cent, and the Coalition six.

Abbott needs to pick up an extra 17 seats to give him the minimum 76 to form a Government, which would require a uniform national swing of about 2 per cent. The picture has been clouded somewhat by electoral redistributions since the last election, with six seats held by Liberal MPs now notionally Labor - three in NSW, two in Queensland and one in Western Australia - and one in NSW shifting to the Liberals.

In Queensland, Gillard is facing a backlash from the dumping of ousted former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd - loyalty to a fellow Queenslander if not for the man - concerns over her mining tax and, as in NSW, anger against the state Labor Government.

Analysts believe the distaste for both state Governments is so strong that Labor as a brand could suffer.

An analysis in The Australian of state voting intentions in the latest Newspoll put the Coalition's two-party preferred vote ahead of Labor's in Queensland by 54 per cent to 46 per cent. In NSW, the Coalition led Labor by 51 per cent to 49 per cent, and in Western Australia by 54 per cent to 46 per cent, producing swings that if uniform across the three states could be sufficient to hand power to Abbott.

Even offset by large swings to Labor in Victoria and South Australia, The Australian said potentially huge losses in Queensland and NSW would wipe out all the Government's gains in 2007.

In Queensland Abbott had narrowed the lead held by Rudd as preferred prime minister by 9 points, and was now behind Gillard by only 43 per cent to 39 per cent.

In NSW Rudd had led Abbott by 20 points as preferred prime minister before being dumped. Abbott had since closed on Gillard, gaining 8 points to trail his rival by 49 per cent to 37 per cent.