Rugby: Paris match clue to Cup

England's Chris Ashton. Photo / Getty Images

It's almost heretical to suggest that this morning's Six Nations clash between England and France will provide the biggest clue yet as to the likely winner of the World Cup.

The Southern Hemisphere, blinded by the speed and skill of the Tri Nations and lulled by the world rankings, will struggle to accept that the hidden World Cup favourites are England and France. New Zealand, Australia and South Africa tend to have a Southern Hemisphere view of the world order; and see only one of them as the eventual winner.

Yet 2011 feels as if it could belong to England or France. These two could potentially clash in the quarter-finals and the victor would have to be fancied to go all the way.

Australia stand as the most likely semifinal opponents on this side of the draw and of the Sanzar nations, the Wallabies, notwithstanding their November trouncing of France, are the most vulnerable against heavy, physical, set-piece teams.

England have buckled the Australians too many times to remember in the past five years, most famously at the last World Cup.

In a final, against either New Zealand or South Africa as the seedings would indicate, England and France have the power, the experience and the belief to win.

England in particular are the team to fear. They are building effectively - have brutal forwards and under-rated backs. They don't move the ball as effortlessly as the All Blacks or the Wallabies, but they go forward, ask questions and break defences.

The mistake many in the Southern Hemisphere make is they read too much into current and recent form. They also make the mistake of writing off the Six Nations; believing it is inferior in most aspects to rugby down under.

But the Six Nations is relentlessly physical and the quality of the set-piece work and scrummaging in particular is higher over there than it is in the Tri Nations. While skill levels are not as high, England are showing a new-found ability to create and exploit space. They don't open the game from inside their own half the way the All Blacks do but, when they have field position, they are adept at using it.

The English are a dangerous World Cup team. They have rugged forwards who can beat anyone up. They build pressure, don't take huge risks but do use the ball and, most importantly, have players who are used to handling the pressure of knockout rugby.

The constant threat of relegation from England's top flight means half the national team spend the back end of the season in do-or-die matches. They know how to grind results, how to play pressure football and close games out.

It's the sort of rugby that breaks the romantics' hearts but, as the All Blacks have discovered so many times, the best team playing the most watchable rugby rarely wins the World Cup.

England are proof of that. Their World Cup record is outstanding yet their overall win ratio is modest. They have been world champions once, played in two other finals, a semifinal and two quarter-finals.

France also have a strong World Cup pedigree with two finals appearances and three visits to the semifinals. Just like the English, they too have a pressurised domestic scene that makes extreme mental demands of players.

There is also a feeling that France are due. New Zealand suits them - the climate, the lifestyle and unlike everyone else, their record here is good. They won a series in 1994 - the last team to do so on New Zealand soil - and sneaked a one-off victory in 2009.

A semifinal against Australia would hold no fears and everyone knows their record against the All Blacks in knockout games. As for South Africa, France would fancy their chances of beating them at Eden Park. The French could handle them up front and may have an edge out wide.

Not being rated won't affect the English or French or shake their certainty this morning's clash at Stadt de France will have connotations beyond the Six Nations. Psychology has always been the battleground for these old foes. The French, so magical and gifted yet so mentally volatile, have struggled to channel their emotions when playing England.

Over the years, the incidents of combustible Frenchmen losing the plot have been many. There was Serge Blanco's out of character headbutt on Nigel Heslop in the 1991 World Cup quarter-final. A year later and there was the double sending off of Vincent Moscato and Gregoire Lascube for acts of extreme violence. Even last year, when France came into their Six Nations match the obviously superior team, they were nervous, unsettled and only just scraped home 13-12.

The English, simply by being English, get into French heads; set their Gallic blood boiling. How deeply emotions run was obvious when France coach Marc Lievremont said: "We don't like them and it's better to say that than be hypocritical. We respect them - well, I respect them. But you couldn't say we have the slightest thing in common.

"We appreciate our Italian cousins with whom we share the same quality of life. We appreciate the Celts and their conviviality and among all these nations we have one huge thing in common. We all don't like the English."