Racing: Twilight will take some beating

Vonusti ridden by Noel Harris is among the chances in an intriguing race 10. Photo / Christine Cornege

Class filly Twilight Savings will give a great sight in the Lion Red Plate at Rotorua today.

The 20mm of rain on Thursday night took the Rotorua track into the slow zone, but not by much and track staff were confident that with no further rain - which is the forecast - the rating will get back to a dead 6.

That's probably going to be fine for Twilight Savings, who has the record book on her side this afternoon.

It's not always easy for 3-year-olds against the older horses at this time of year, but that's at level weights. Under today's weight-for-age scale they obtain an enormous advantage and they have an outstanding record in this race, winning it in five of the last seven years.

Twlight Savings looks potentially at least as good as any of those five winners and if she can get some sort of a run early from her wide barrier, she will take beating.

It's crazy not to consider veteran Bulginbaah in these types of races and Vonusti, Cool Storm and Veloz are among the chances in an intriguing race.

In his brief career Sweet Diamond (No4, R1) has coped well with rain-affected track, as most of the Thorn Parks do. He has got to the line strongly in all three starts and gets his chance to win here. If he was able to stay just a fraction handier it would help the cause.

Ranaldinio (No3) looks a danger fresh despite a wide barrier.

The better the track the better the chances of Charma (No1, R2). He went okay on a heavy track for 2nd to Magic Briar at Te Rapa when resuming, but his best form last season, including a close up 4th to Banchee, was on good tracks. Given that he is conceding significant weight to all rivals, he will need to be handling the conditions. Elle Tresor (No2) is better than her 8th at Ellerslie last start and won't mind give in the track, and Blue Minx (No3) could have a future, judging by her winning debut.

The improved track conditions are going to suit Caratacus (No2, R3). He was previously thought of as a mudden, but when he got a decent track at Ruakaka two starts back he came from last to bolt in impressively.

The Ellerslie surface he failed on last start was diabolical by the last race and he can be forgiven. This should see a better result. Quinn Tait (No3) does just enough to get beaten, but this is not a strong field overall and he features strongly in multiples.

Bella Rosalia (No9, R4) is a bit of a whacker. Michael Coleman has had to press the button on her a long way out in her last two starts to try to get her handy on the home bend because she doesn't have a sprint. Those types are always vulnerable and she gets the nod here only because it's difficult to make a case for many of the others.

Cover your bets though, she's no certainty. The Rose (No11) might be the danger.

Interesting contest in Race 5 between Rockburn (No5) and Hammer Down (No9). Rockburn didn't get many favours when third in a strong field at Hastings last start after an impressive Taupo winning debut. He has ability, but so has Hammer Down, who impresses trainer Stephen McKee. We'll tip Hammer Down just ahead of Rockburn with Evathreestep (No2) the value for the trifecta.

Santangelo (No2, R7) has had two resuming runs and won both of them.

That's a compelling statistic for an R80 race. She appreciates longer distances, but fresh she will get away with it on today's 1200m trip. Her 1200m record is six starts for three wins and two placings. Te Horo Lass (No6) did well when resuming and can improve and Major Rio (No4) is doing nothing wrong.

So Royal (No11, R8) was backed and beaten when resuming at Matamata last week, but it was a top effort. She got a long way back when that wasn't perfect in every race and did well. She should be just that touch fitter for this. The big plus is that while she is jumping way up in class, that is balanced by dropping from 58kg to 52kg. I'm Isaac (No7) is racing better now he's in blinkers.

Fazzle (No5, R9) and Miss Sharapova (No3) shape up in a fascinating contest. Both are resuming, both have drawn well and both look to be on parallel paths. The difference this time might be that Fazzle appears likely to be the best one fresh from a spell. She has won in thatstate previously where Miss Sharapova has not. Include them both in all multiple bets. So too Fledgling (No4).

The last looks more like a no-bet race than the get-out stakes, but if you're tempted, Hula Belle (No10, R11) wasn't the worst at Matamata last week, making ground nicely towards the end to finish 5th. He should be at good each-way odds.

* A heavy track for the Caulfield Cup today - that's a shame, but it helps sort a few out.

Faint Perfume's 52kg looks attractive in what is certain to be a bit of a slog. On paper her lead-up form looks only average, but they haven't been bad runs. Blinkers on today will make a difference and she WILL handle the conditions. The Bart Cummings factor too. What more can you say about that.

The wet track is not going to harm the chances of New Zealand's leading hope, Harris Tweed.

Co-trainer Murray Baker is trying to keep the lid on his delight with how Harris Tweed has progressed since his win under 58.5kg last start in Melbourne.

Caulfield would normally be a bit too slick as a suitable racetrack for Harris Tweed, but the "off" track will balance that out. The conditions will probably prove too tough for Red Ruler, who yesterday got back into the field with scratchings.

The rain will have done no harm to the chances of Ginga Dude when he makes his Australian debut in the A$125,000 David Jones Cup. He drops to 54.5kg, more comfortable than the weights he's been carrying in New Zealand. Michael Walker climbs aboard and don't forget that's the combination that won the Avondale Cup.

It took a long time but C'est La Guerre got back to form in Sydney last start and will love the rain.