Matt McCarten: Shearer the one to lead Labour resurgence

David Shearer. Photo / Janna Dixon

Last Sunday morning on TVNZ's Q+A programme, I was part of a political consensus across the right-to-left divide that I have not observed before.

Phil Goff had indicated the night before he would exit the Labour Party leadership. The two predicted favourites - David Cunliffe and David Parker - were now open contenders for the job.

Cunliffe in his own words described himself as dynamic and his demeanour suggested he had it in the bag, despite party insiders telling me for months that Parker had the numbers.

They would mutter that Cunliffe was too arrogant and too smarmy. I put that down to the normal sniping that comes from party manoeuvrings. I was puzzled though why Parker had so much support from his colleagues. The most his proxies could come up with was that he was smart and solid on policy.

Whether he had the appeal to lead Labour to victory didn't seem to have been a consideration.

In my opinion, neither would lift their party above the mid 30 per cent support needed to beat John Key in the next election. Therefore I had been contemplating for some time who could possibly do it. All the possible contenders were either unsuitable or not ready. Then it dawned on me. Mt Albert's David Shearer.

He has an amazing personal story, leading UN humanitarian efforts around the world. Shearer's comparison with John Key is stark. Both men spent 20 years overseas making a difference: John Key working to make $50 million for himself, while David Shearer was working to save 50 million lives from war, poverty and famine. This one sentence tells us everything we need to know about these two.

The Thursday before the election, right-wing commentator Matthew Hooton and I finished our weekly radio stint on John Tamihere and Willy Jackson's show. The four of us went for a beer, where the matter of Labour's leader came up. I was surprised we had all separately come to the conclusion: the only viable choice for next leader was Shearer. We then conceded that the individual ambitions within the caucus would make it impossible for a fresh outsider to win.

However, on Sunday an opening for a Shearer nomination came about. On the Q+A show, former National Party president Michelle Boag and former Act MP Deborah Coddington both tipped him for leader.

Political scientist Jon Johansson, our panel chief, concurred. I assumed Labour strategist John Pagani would fall into line with Cunliffe or Parker but he strongly supported Shearer, leaving me to wonder how the parliamentary press hadn't picked Shearer as a front runner before.

Later I talked to left-wing columnist Chris Trotter, who also picked Shearer.

When Shearer did announce his candidacy the mainstream media ignored him with some confidently anointing Parker. The Dominion Post website poll didn't even include Shearer.

On Mark Sainsbury's Close Up, we got to see the three contenders in action. Parker's performance was bad. Cunliffe was in contrast coiffed, smooth and confident. And although Shearer was hesitant there was something special about him.

In his UN work he would have dealt with widespread human abuse and depravity. You could feel this man was tough - after all he has had to deal with bloody warlords and corrupt politicians for years - yet he exuded a calmness and empathy that only a person with deep convictions and inner peace has. More importantly, politically you could feel his connection with viewers.

The viewers' phone text poll agreed, giving Shearer 50 per cent support leaving the other two far behind. The momentum has been with Shearer ever since.

Parker's withdrawal and transferring his support to Shearer surely makes him a shoo-in.

In three years, Shearer will be prime minister. That is, assuming that Labour doesn't mess it up.